Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 31 best bets & top value picks

The four teams chasing AC Milan for the top spot in the Serie A table are all in action against each other this Sunday as Juventus hosts Inter Milan and Napoli visits Atalanta. We’ve got picks in these two matchups and Monday’s AC Milan vs Bologna clash in our Serie A Matchweek 31 best bets.

Atalanta vs Napoli

Napoli (19-6-5) picked up a 2-1 win at home over Udinese prior to the international break to improve to 7-2-1 over its last 10 matches. Atalanta (14-9-6) also won a close game in a 1-0 victory on the road over Bologna. Prior to that win, Atlanta went just 2-5-4 over its previous 11 games; a far fall from the 8-2-0 run the club went on before that slump.

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Most signs point to this one going UNDER its posted total of 2.5 goals. Napoli has allowed exactly one goal in each of its last six matches and has scored no more than two in any of its last seven matches. Atalanta has allowed one goal or fewer in six straight games while scoring one goal or fewer in eight of its last nine matches. These two clubs played to an uncharacteristic 3-2 final the last time they met, but this time around we expect a defensive battle and a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 final.

Juventus vs Inter Milan

Juventus (17-8-5) picked up a fourth straight win in an easy 2-0 win at home over Salernitana on March 20. The club’s last loss came all the way back on November 27; Juventus is 11-5-0 over its last 16 games played since then. Inter Milan (17-9-3) was in command for the top spot on the Serie A table with a 16-5-1 record before fumbling their lead away with a 1-4-2 slump over their last seven matches. A win over lowly Salernitana is Internazionale’s only victory since January 22.

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If Inter Milan were going off as an underdog here, this would be a great spot to take a shot on them as they are coming off of a break that could have given them the chance to re-focus and to get back on track here. But with the betting odds listing them as a slight favorite, the value is clearly on Juventus, who has been playing elite soccer for months and deserves more respect at home. The high possibility of a draw has us leaning towards taking Juventus as a pick’em on the two-way line instead of risking an outright loss on the three-way line.

AC Milan vs Bologna

AC Milan (20-6-4) earned its third straight 1-0 win on the road against Cagliari in their final game prior to the break. Milan has taken over the top spot in the Serie A standings and is 5-2-0 over its last seven games in large part due to outstanding play on defense, allowing only four goals over its last eight matches. Bologna (9-6-14) suffered a second straight 1-0 loss to Atalanta in its last game and has now been held scoreless in each of its last three matches.

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This looks like another UNDER waiting to happen. It’s difficult to see Bologna finding a goal against this elite Atalanta defense. And while Bologna has done plenty of losing since December with a 2-3-9 record over its last 14 matches, it has allowed more than two goals only once over its last 13 matches. An exact score prop bet on Atalanta winning 2-0 might be worth a shot, but the UNDER also covers another very realistic score of Atalanta 1-0.

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