UFC Fight Night – who to bet on in the Mir vs. Duffee bout

Mir vs. Duffee – 5 Round Heavy Weight Bout.
San Diego, CA, USA, from 7pm local time

IT’S the heavyweights turn to do battle inside the UFC Octagon this week as #10 ranked Frank Mir takes on rising star Todd Duffee.

Duffee, like many up-and-coming talents in MMA, has had plenty to say in the media and he believes he will win the UFC Heavyweight title in due course.

The experience Mir is looking to keep his spot inside the top 10 rankings and with an under-card featuring The Ultimate Fighter winner Tony Ferguson and Josh ‘The Punk’ Thomson, it promises to be an action packed card.

Mir vs. Duffee

Mir – $2.39
Duffee – $1.57

It appears rankings mean nothing to bookmakers, but we don’t blame them for making Todd Duffee the short $1.57 favourite.

Duffee has a record of 9-2 with a KO/TKO percentage of 100 and that will surely make for an exciting fight against Mir who usually relies on his submission strengths.

It’s hard to predict wrestler vs. striker match ups as Mir’s ground game could easily disarm the power Duffee possesses in his hands, but Duffee will simply look to avoid getting taken down.

Duffee lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute – one of the best in the UFC – and he’s also got good defense tactics with 90 percent of takedowns defended.

This fight is scheduled for five rounds, but we can’t see either fighter lasting that long. The money has come for Duffee to win via knockout or by submission at $1.53, but take the head-to-head money at $1.57 because that’s the logical thing to do.

Duffee to win – $1.57 at Sportsbet.com.au

Thomson vs. Ferguson

Thomson – $2.60
Ferguson – $1.50

Tony Ferguson was one of the most disliked and controversial fighters in The Ultimate Fighter history, but there’s no denying his talent.

The season 13 winner is ranked 11th in the lightweight division and he has gone on to record an impressive 19-3-0 MMA record.

The lightning quick hands of Ferguson proves to be the main factor his opponents must overcome and his KO/TKO rate of 58 percent ranks highly.

Ferguson has been criticised for being mentally fragile, someone who lets his emotions get the better of him, but from a punters perspective, he looks a good bet here.

Josh Thomson is far from a pushover, with a record of 20 wins and seven losses and he has a good all round game, but does he have the explosiveness to beat Ferguson?

We’re likely to see Thomson shoot for takedowns, but Ferguson has a great defensive rate and running into a Ferguson strike could mean lights out.

The bookmakers look to have this line spot on the money. Take the $1.50 at CrownBet.com.au and add it to your multi-bets.

Holm vs. Reneau

Holm – $1.48
Reneau – $2.47 at Sportsbet.com.au

The only women’s fight on the card features the undefeated Holly Holm taking on the always gritty Marion Reneau.

Holm is an outstanding fighter who hasn’t lost in eight professional fights – winning six by KO or TKO and two on a points decision.

The statistics don’t side in Holm’s favour, however, as Reneau lands 5.38 punches per minutes compared to Holm’s 2.93 and with a much better accuracy.

There isn’t much splitting these two fighters, regardless of what the bookmakers are suggesting, and the value is definitely with the “Belizean Bruiser” Marion Reneau.

Jorgensen vs. Gamburyan

Jorgensen – $2.23
Gamburyan – $1.66

This is the most even fight on the card as both fighters have very similar stats, but the bookies have sided with “The Anvil” Manny Gamburyan.

The Armenian-born fighter is 17-9 with one no contest and he usually either wins by submission or on points, much like Jorgensen whose KO/TKO percentage sits at 13, one point higher than his opponents.

If you’re wanting to see a striking fight, probably best to do something else while this fight is on. They both look like aggressive striking fighters, but both will want this fight on the ground.

There isn’t much value with either fighter for the ‘submission or points’ market, so we’re going to predict a rare, but value option.

Take the draw at $51 and hope for the best.