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AFL Finals: Brisbane v Carlton betting picks & best odds

Brisbane v Carlton betting tips

Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues

AFL Finals 2023 Betting Odds & Game Info

Best odds Brisbane -263.16 at Palmerbet | Carlton +235 at Bet365
When Saturday, September 23 | 5:15pm AEST
Where The Gabba, Brisbane
Last time they met Carlton 11.8.74 – Brisbane 15.10.100 (Rd 8, 2023)
Watch live Seven, Fox Sports, Kayo

The excitement continues to build in the 2023 AFL finals series as the Brisbane Lions gear up to host the Carlton Blues in a highly anticipated showdown at the Gabba for the second preliminary final.

Just two weeks ago, the Lions delivered a commanding performance, overpowering the Port Adelaide Power by a staggering 48 points. What started as a close-fought battle saw a dramatic shift in momentum after the 20-minute mark of the second quarter. The Lions, led by the powerhouse presence of key forward Joe Daniher, unleashed a barrage of 14 goals to secure their spot in the preliminary finals.

This marks the third appearance in the preliminary finals for the Brisbane Lions in the last four years, and they appear more formidable than ever in their pursuit of a grand final berth, a feat they haven’t achieved since their triumphant 2004 season.

Meanwhile, the Carlton Blues faced off against Melbourne at the MCG last weekend, clinching a nail-biting victory by a mere two points. The match was a relentless tug-of-war, with neither side managing to establish a significant lead, maintaining a margin of under 10 points throughout the game.

The Blues ultimately had luck on their side, as Melbourne’s inaccuracies in kicking, particularly a costly 2.6 in the final term, kept the match tantalisingly close. Midfield maestro Sam Walsh delivered a standout performance with 34 disposals, two goals, and eight tackles, while captain Patrick Cripps displayed his prowess with 27 disposals and nine clearances.

Remarkably, after clinching fifth place in the regular season, Carlton now finds themselves in their first preliminary final since the turn of the millennium in 2000. Buoyed by the fervent support of their dedicated fanbase, the Blues are on a remarkable underdog run, determined to extend their fairytale journey against all odds in Brisbane.

However, the Lions are keeping a watchful eye on the availability of key defender Jack Payne, who has been nursing an ankle injury during training sessions. With Payne likely to face off against the formidable Charlie Curnow, the Lions have held back Darcy Gardner as a potential replacement. Additionally, the seasoned Jack Gunston is in contention for a return after grappling with a knee ailment.

Despite sustaining a shoulder injury in the clash against Melbourne, Carlton’s half-back Sam Docherty is expected to take the field this weekend. With the return of pivotal players Harry McKay (concussion) and Jack Martin (suspension), it’s anticipated that Matthew Kennedy may make way. Furthermore, Jesse Motlop, David Cunningham, and Oliver Hollands could be potential omissions.

Brisbane vs Carlton betting strategy

As the Carlton Blues transition from their MCG stronghold to face the undefeated Lions at the Gabba, they find themselves in need of a substantially improved performance to orchestrate an upset.

The Brisbane Lions, well-rested and in their home turf, exude formidable form. Their resounding victory against the Power highlights that, at their peak, they’re a force to be reckoned with. While the Lions’ head-to-head odds are priced around -270.27 with AFL betting sites, we’re favouring them to cover the -18.5 points line.

With the Lions averaging over 95 points per game at the Gabba this season, their potent forward line is poised to challenge the Blues’ defence. Moreover, the last seven encounters between these sides at the Gabba have surpassed the total points line, indicating another high-scoring affair is on the cards.

Since taking on a more prominent midfield role from round 16, Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage has experienced a resurgence in form. Averaging 24.7 disposals in this period, McCluggage now plays a pivotal role in 50% of centre bounces, showcasing his explosive clearance capabilities. His standout performance against the Power, with 26 disposals, nine clearances, and a goal, underscores his impact. We’re backing McCluggage to continue his impressive form with 25 or more disposals at favourable odds of -105.26 with Bovada.

Brisbane Lions -18.5


Over 166.5 total points


Hugh McCluggage 25+ disposals


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