Chimaev vs Diaz UFC 279 betting picks – September 10, 2022

Fearless rising star Khamzat Chimaev collides with original Stockton gangsta Nate Diaz for the UFC 279 main event this Saturday night in Las Vegas.

On paper this appears to be a bizarre main event fight, an almost comedic WWE-style matchup that makes little sense. We can thank Conor McGregor for these non-title main events. He topped cards that generated huge revenue when there were no UFC gold belts on the line, and a headliner such as this would not have been possible without the enduring McGregor business model.

The truth is these are both immensely popular athletes – one on the rise, the other on the verge of retirement – and people will pay to watch them fight. This is our take on the Chimaev vs Diaz clash, including our best bet for the contest.

Khamzat Chimaev form, stats & record

Khamzat Chimaev (11-0-0) is a scary guy. The bearded Chechen, who now resides in Switzerland, is an embodiment of a warrior spirit that comfortable westerners can’t really grasp. Men from this region live to fight. It’s in their DNA. They enter combat without fear.

UFC supremo Dana White quickly identified this trait in Chimaev and has pushed his career at breakneck speed. Chimaev entered the promotion hungry to fight anyone, from any weight class, and went to work in 2020. First-up he submitted John Philips on July 16, then he knocked out Rhys McKee on July 26, and then knocked out Gerald Meerschaert with a single punch on September 19.

White loves fighters with this ‘anyone, anytime’ mentality, and a UFC star was born. Chimaev next graced the ring in October 2021, when he choked out Li Jiangliang within mere seconds while the Chechen made small talk with those seated ringside, including UFC bosses. Next on the list came a huge rise in class when Chimaev faced Gilbert Burns, resulting in a close and chaotic decision victory.

We can assume that lessons were learned in the Burns fight, where Chimaev’s recklessness almost brought him unstuck. He is a technically sound combatant with a full arsenal, but just needs to temper his thirst for violence somewhat if he hopes to secure UFC gold.

Nate Diaz form, stats & record

The betting sites give Nate Diaz (21-13-0) almost no hope of prevailing here. Diaz has had a long and lucrative career but is now aged 37, and the passage of time is not his friend. Diaz bounced from a fighter earning $20k to show plus $20k to win to become a worldwide superstar with an upset victory in March 2016 over Conor McGregor. Diaz was called in on short notice and shocked the world with a submission victory that set him on the path to stardom.

The win opened doors for other big-money fights, including a McGregor rematch which resulted in a narrow and contentious points decision in favour of the Irishman. Diaz then fought and won against former champ Anthony Pettis, followed by a contest opposite Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt, which Diaz lost via stoppage, and a five-round classic versus Leon Edwards, resulting in another Diaz loss.

Diaz’s career has been typified by his refusal to follow company rules when they conflicted with the Stockton gangsta lifestyle. He is almost impossible to negotiate with, according to the sport’s moneymen, but has made the most of his talents, and this should be his last UFC fight before he rides off into the sunset to smoke weed and teach jiu-jitsu to disadvantaged youth. Despite his patchy win-loss record, fight fans love Diaz. He may be the most popular name on the UFC roster.

Chimaev vs Diaz betting prediction

It’s hard to imagine the scenario in which Nate Diaz wins this fight unless Khamzat Chimaev does something stupid. Diaz could possibly submit the favourite, but Chimaev is a master on the mat himself. The Chechen is younger, fitter, stronger, and hasn’t worn the damage Diaz has endured across his long career. Diaz is a tough as old boots, so the fight might last a few rounds, but Chimaev is almost certain to prevail and set up a possible title fight with welterweight champ Leon Edwards.

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