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Collingwood v Brisbane AFL Grand Final betting picks & odds

AFL Grand Final 2023

Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions

AFL Grand Final 2023 Odds & Game Info

Best odds Collingwood -133.33 at Bovada | Brisbane +110 at Bovada
When Saturday, September 30 | 7:50pm AEST
Where MCG, Melbourne
Last time they met Collingwood 15.10.100 – Brisbane 19.10.124 (Rd 23, 2023)
Watch live Watch AFL Global, Seven (AU), BT Sport (UK), FOX Sports (US), GZTV (CN)

2023 AFL Grand Final match preview

The culmination of the 2023 AFL Premiership season is set to ignite the MCG on the final day of September as the Collingwood Magpies clash with the Brisbane Lions in a showdown for the ages.

Having suffered a heart-wrenching one-point loss in the preliminary final last year, the Magpies redeemed themselves with a nail-biting victory over the GWS Giants just last week. Despite being the standout team during the home-and-away season, Collingwood’s performance in the finals has been less than convincing, scraping through in both encounters.

The Magpies are acutely aware of their recent history against the Lions, having lost their last six encounters, including both matchups this season. Their grand final record also looms as a daunting spectre, with just four victories from their last 20 appearances.

However, Collingwood’s 2023 campaign showcased a dynamic side adept at pushing forward with flair. Their capacity to hustle and transition the ball swiftly often catches defenders off-guard, creating ample space for their forward line. The question remains whether this style of play can withstand the pressure of the grandest stage.

In stark contrast, the Brisbane Lions enter this final in a blistering run of form, triumphing in their last six outings. Their journey to the grand final has been marked by commanding victories over Port Adelaide and Carlton, underscoring their status as a force to be reckoned with.

After reaching the preliminary finals three times in four years, the Lions return to the AFL Grand Final for the first time since 2004. Armed with an unblemished home record and the most lethal attack in the league, Brisbane aims to overpower Collingwood with a formidable arsenal of scoring options.

Yet, the absence of their fortress, the Gabba, casts a shadow over the Lions’ prospects. Their record at the MCG is less than stellar, with 14 losses in their last 15 matches at the venue, including two this season. Overcoming this hurdle will demand nothing short of a monumental effort.

AFL Grand Final 2023 team news

Collingwood will be without key forward Dan McStay (knee) and midfielder Taylor Adams (hamstring), ruled out early in the week. Billy Frampton emerges as the likely replacement for McStay, though the Pies might opt for a smaller lineup with either John Noble or Jack Ginnivan.

Brisbane’s key defender, Jack Payne, is poised to make a return after missing last week with an ankle injury. Darcy Gardner, after an impressive showing against the Blues, appears to be the likely omission if Payne rejoins the lineup.

Collingwood vs Brisbane AFL Grand Final predictions

With the two standout teams of 2023 poised to clash in impeccable conditions, expect a contest for the ages. Despite their injuries, the Collingwood Magpies seem formidable, bolstered by their experience performing before massive crowds week in, week out. At -133.33, the minor premiers represent excellent value to seal the deal.

After tallying 10 goals in Brisbane’s two victories over Collingwood this season, Lions forward Charlie Cameron is poised to wreak havoc once again. Returning to an AFL Grand Final for the first time since 2017, Cameron’s experience in high-stakes matches could be pivotal. Following a slightly wasteful outing last weekend, we’re betting on him to straighten up with two or more goals at -163.93 with top AFL betting sites.

Another significant threat in Brisbane’s loaded forward line is Joe Daniher. His aerial prowess, newfound goal-kicking accuracy, and booming left foot make him a danger from anywhere within 60 metres. At +900, he’s our pick for the first goalscorer in the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

With six of the finals matches thus far falling below the total points line, it’s evident that the intensity of play has impacted scoring on both ends. Collingwood’s defence has shone brightly, while the Lions conceded just four goals across the last three quarters against the Blues. Expect this showdown to yield under 165.5 total points.

Magpies vs Lions best bets – AFL Grand Final 2023

Collingwood to win


Charlie Cameron 2+ goals


Joe Daniher first goalscorer


Under 165.5 total points


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