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Lewis v Nascimento preview, odds & betting picks | UFC St. Louis

Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Lewis -153.85 at Bovada | Nascimento +125 at Bovada
When Saturday, May 11 – main card from 6pm CDT
Where Enterprise Center – St. Louis, United States
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass

A pair of hulking heavyweights will show down when Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento headline UFC Fight Night at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis. The matchup presents a classic contrast of styles, with the heavy strikes of Lewis colliding with the more subtle submission approach of the younger Nascimento. Read on for our fight preview and top betting picks.

Lewis v Nascimento fight preview

Derrick Lewis UFC betting

Derrick Lewis


Rodrigo Nascimento UFC betting

Rodrigo Nascimento

27-12-0 MMA record 11-1-0
39 Age 31
6’3″ Height 6’2″
265lbs Weight 264lbs
79″ Reach 80″
USA Nationality Brazil

Derrick Lewis (27-12-0) holds the UFC record for total number of knockouts with 14 stoppage wins since 2014. The 39-year-old mixes up his strikes and can land high and low kicks and even the occasional flying knee to set up his signature right-hand punch. While he has just two wins from his last seven UFC appearances, he remains relevant in the heavyweight division due to his large fan following and the current lack of talent at 265 pounds.

Lewis is coming off a disappointing performance against BBJ expert Jailton Almedia. Despite his prodigious strength, the American can struggle to recover from takedowns and will be keen to keep this contest in the upright position. The Lewis equation is simple: he either finds a home for his power strikes, or he slowly runs out of gas and ends up fighting off his back.

Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1-0) enters this contest after three straight UFC decision victories. He is sure to be outgunned in the power department — the last of his two KO wins came in 2014 — but has a slick submission game and should be able to dominate if he can take this bout to the mat. This will rely on patience and evasive footwork to elude the power punches of Lewis, particularly in the opening round.

The 31-year-old will be the fresher fighter and should have a cardio edge if the fight lasts beyond the opening 10 minutes. Nascimento’s chin has only let him down on one occasion, but he has not faced the type of heavy blows that are bound to come his way here. His speed will be tested against a deceptively athletic big man, and any lapse in mobility might lead to an early night for the Brazilian.

Lewis v Nascimento betting strategy

Despite his advancing years, Lewis has an experience edge and looks to have the tools required to score the early finish. Nascimento tends to retreat with his chin a little too high and therefore exposed to the type of punch Lewis has built his career around. The favourite with UFC bookmakers can lack motivation in some of his fights, but in front of a big crowd, he might be ready to put on a show and add to his highlight reel.

Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO


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