MLB Pick: Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates

Overview

The Miami Marlins are in Pittsburgh for the first game of a three game series with the Pirates. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between the Marlins and Pirates with the Pirates winning two of the first three games. Pittsburgh has won 10 of the last 14 meetings overall versus the Marlins and the last 6 straight in Pittsburgh.

Head to Head Trends

Marlins are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Marlins are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
Under is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings.

Pittsburgh Pirates (-132)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3rd in the National league Central just a game and a half back of the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates are 7 games over .500 on the season with 59 wins versus 52 losses and average 4.22 runs per game on offense and 4.14 runs per game on defense. The Pirates are one of the best home teams in baseball where they are 34-21 and actually that is the best home record in the National league. At home the Pirates average 4.51 runs per game on offense and allow 3.98 runs per game on defense. On the mound for the Pirates today is Charlie Morton who is 5-10 with a 3.54 ERA. Morton has had much better results at home this season where he is 3-3 with a 2.18 ERA compared to on the road where he is 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates Trends

Pirates are 16-5 in their last 21 home games.
Pirates are 4-0 in Mortons last 4 home starts.
Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.

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Miami Marlins (+122)

The Miami Marlins are 3rd in the National League East 6.5 games back of the Washington Nationals. The Marlins play pretty good ball at home but they struggle on the road where they are just 23-29. Away from home the Marlins offense or I should say lack there of is averaging just 3.67 runs per game and their pitching isn’t much better allowing over 4.5 runs per game so it’s actually kind of surprising they are just 6 games under .500 at home. Starting for the Marlins today is lefty Brad Hand who is 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 6 starts and a “hand” full of relief appearances this season.

Miami Marlins Trends

Marlins are 4-12 in Hands last 16 starts.
Marlins are 1-7 in Hands last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.

Conclusion

I like the Pittsburgh Pirates to beat the Miami Marlins today. It kind of all comes down to some basic bettors math, good home team versus bad road team equals good home team wins. Ok it’s not exactly trigonometry but sometimes simple works.

Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -132