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Nadal vs Medvedev betting picks – Australian Open men’s final

Australian Open men's final betting picks

Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev

Australian Open Odds and Match Info

AO betting odds Nadal +154 at Bovada | Medvedev -200 at Bovada
When Sunday, January 30 – 7:30pm AEDT
Where Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne
Watch live Nine (AU), ESPN (US), Eurosport (EU)

Rafael Nadal is within touching distance of that elusive 21st Grand Slam title, but Daniil Medvedev will look to spoil the party when the two clash in the Australian Open men’s singles final on Sunday night (AEDT).

Nadal forecasted before the tournament that the potential absence of Novak Djokovic could be a huge benefit to his chances at Melbourne Park, and that has proved to be the case.

The Spaniard has had to work for it at times, most notably in his five-setter against Denis Shapovalov in the quarter finals, so the question is whether or not he has enough left in the tank for the decider.


Medvedev is 10 years younger than his opponent and so should have a fitness edge, although the Russian star has actually played more sets than Nadal on his run to the final.

The no.2 seed has also shown he can win tough, however, as he confirmed when coming from two sets down to outmuscle Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters.

Both finalists won in four sets in the semis, with Medvedev taking out Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1) and Nadal disposing of Italy’s Matteo Berrettini (6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3).

Tennis betting sites have Medvedev pegged as a firm favourite at -200, while Nadal is sure to attract some interest with punters at +154.

AO men’s final – Nadal vs Medvedev betting predictions

First set winner: Rafael Nadal

In Medvedev’s six matches so far at the 2022 Australian Open, three times the first set has ended in a tiebreaker. Nadal has won all of his opening sets up to this point, with only one of those going to a breaker. The favourite could be vulnerable early, so there is some value about Rafa to go 1-0 up.

Rafael Nadal to win first set


Match result: Daniil Medvedev 3-2

Nadal has a 3-1 head-to-head record against Medvedev; however, they last played in 2020, and the Russian won on that occasion. Medvedev has come a long way since that last meeting, highlighted by his win in the 2021 US Open, while Rafa has lost each of his last four Australian Open finals. The Spanish champion will go down swinging, but we are on Medvedev to edge it.

Daniil Medvedev to win 3-2


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