New England Patriots vs Houston Texans betting picks and odds

Kickoff at 7:20pm CT (8:20pm ET)

New England Patriots
Moneyline odds: -175 at Bovada
Betting line: -3.5 at -111.11
Record (ATS): 10-2 (7-4)

Houston Texans
Moneyline odds: +155 at Bovada
Betting line: +3.5 at -111.11
Record (ATS): 7-4 (5-6)

The 10-1 New England Patriots head to the Lone Star State in NFL Week 13 for a primetime game facing the 7-4 Houston Texans in what may be a preview of an AFC playoff game.

The Patriots have won two games in a row where their offense was not dominant but their defense was. While New England have only managed 30 points over their last two games, they have only given up 19 points.

The Texans have won three of their last four games and sit first in the AFC South. They are one game up on the Indianapolis Colts, who they beat last week, and the Tennessee Titans, who face Indy this Sunday.

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Deshawn Watson was once in the MVP conversation and while that is not the case anymore, he had a big game in the Texans’ 20-17 win over the Colts. Now he faces the daunting New England defense, which was great in the 13-9 win over the Dallas Cowboys last time out.

These teams met last season in New England, where the home side won 27-20. The Patriots have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Texans.

Tom Brady did not put up the big stats in the win over the Cowboys (17/37, 190 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), but he was playing in terrible conditions and managed the game well. He has had a banged-up WR corps and the New England run game has been up and down. While the GOAT’s stats have not been great, the Pats are 10-1 and charging towards their 11th consecutive AFC East title.

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New England had fewer yards than Dallas (321-282) but held America’s Team to 2/13 on third down and kept Ezekiel Elliot in check for the most part, restricting him to 86 rushing yards. The Patriots only rank 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but Sony Michel rushed for 85 yards at 4.3 yards per carry and had a few late runs that iced the game.

Houston’s defense has not been great on the season, as evinced by their recent 41-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. They only rank 25th in the league defending the pass and 17th defending the run.

In their last game the Texans had 100 more yards than the Colts (396-296) and while they gave up 175 rushing yards, they held Indy to only seven points in the second half. One stat needs to change for Houston in this game, as they allowed the Colts to convert 9/15 third downs. If they allow Brady and company to do that, they are toast.

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Watson passed for 298 yards with a touchdown and an interception against the Colts, Will Fuller V and DeAndre Hopkins combined for 234 receiving yards, and Carlos Hyde rushed for 67 yards at 4.2 yards per carry.

Watson needs to have a solid game this week and the Texans need to run the ball well. That is easier said than done facing New England, whose defense ranks second in the league against the pass and ninth against the run.

On the season the Texans are 4-1 at home and the Patriots are 5-1 on the road.

New England Patriots betting trends

• Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games
• Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
• Patriots have an Under record of 4-1 in their last five games

Houston Texans betting trends

• Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games
• Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• Texans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss
• Texans have an Under record of 4-0 in their last four games

Patriots vs Texans head-to-head trends

• Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Texans
• Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games between these teams
• Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games between these teams
• In the last 11 games between these teams the Over record is 8-3

Patriots @ Texans NFL betting picks

New England Patriots -3.5 at -111.11 with Bovada

Brady has been scrutinized for his play lately, but his team keeps winning and he has avoided mistakes. After being in Philadelphia and at home with terrible conditions, Brady is indoors in this game and should find some form. With the Ravens only one game back in the AFC standings, the Pats will come out with urgency and claim an easy win in Houston.