NFL MVP 2022-23: Can Aaron Rodgers go back-to-back-to-back?

The NFL MVP is always one of the most wagered-on futures in American sports. It’s awarded to the best player in the biggest league in North America; it makes sense. However, this is an area where football betting sites make a lot of money as people do not know how to properly bet on it. People are very reactionary, and the sportsbooks know that. When good news happens to certain players, books will jack up the odds on those players. Like any wagering, the most important thing is timing.

Of course, it is super early to be betting on MVP, but there can still be value on the board. If you place a bet on someone and they start the season hot, their odds will jump. Ideally, you will have multiple future bets in the bank on several players. NFL MVP odds change a lot throughout the season and there will be opportunities to bet on everyone after they have a bad week. Ultimately, whenever it feels gross to place the bet, that’s probably the best time. Obviously, this only applies for elite players who actually have a chance of winning the award but the point remains.

So, who can actually win the award? It’s pretty simple. The 2022-23 NFL MVP will be a quarterback on a good playoff team. Since 2006, only one MVP wasn’t a QB, and it has been a QB in each of the last nine years. With the way the NFL is trending, it’s pretty safe to say the winner will be a quarterback this coming year.

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two favorites right now, and it makes sense. They are at the top of their games, and with Allen at +700 and Mahomes at +800, there is pretty good value on them. Both of their teams are projected to be in competition for a Super Bowl next season. While their odds are low, and there is a good chance they get higher after a bad loss when the season starts, no one will fault you for locking in a bet on these two studs right now.

The next cluster of quarterbacks is Tom Brady, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers. They are each at +1000 with Bovada and all on teams that project to be good. Once again, if one of them stands out to you, no one will fault you for betting on them. These are all elite players. However, their odds are a little too low and the same thing goes. Due to the reactionary mindset of NFL bettors, there will be an opportunity to get better value on these players when the NFL season kicks off.

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The next favorites are Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. All of these guys have odds between +1200 and +1600 with the top NFL betting sites. Burrow and Stafford have a lot of hype after their respective Super Bowl runs, and it wouldn’t be wise to bet them with all that attention.

Wilson was just traded to the Broncos in a deal that has been met with universal praise. While Wilson is good, he is aging and didn’t look like an elite quarterback last year. It wouldn’t make sense to bet on him now while his odds are the lowest they have been in a while.

Prescott is at +1600 and he is an interesting guy. He plays on a team that could be good and he definitely has periods of elite play. However, he is very inconsistent and there will be opportunities to get him at better odds during the season.

The next two quarterbacks are Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson at +1800. Watson may be suspended and it is hard to see the NFL awarding a guy who has just gone through 23 sexual assault allegations. He’s talented, but he won’t win MVP this year unless he has one of the best seasons of all time. As good as he is, he hasn’t played in a year and it is unlikely he can step up his game to that level.

Murray is a good bet. At +1800, he is undervalued. He has had a tumultuous offseason where rumors of him being a malcontent leaked to the press. Kyler is a phenomenal quarterback and definitely has the talent to win. The issue is, the Arizona Cardinals may not be good enough. At his current price, it is worth taking the bet that the Cards are good and locking in a future on Murray for MVP in 2023.

The last guy worth talking about is Trey Lance. He is at +5000 and although he hasn’t played too many games yet, that is good value. His team, the San Francisco 49ers, just made the NFC Championship Game with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. While Jimmy G is alright, he is not a great quarterback, so it is safe to say the 49ers will be good again with Lance at the helm. Lance, last year’s third overall pick, has the opportunity to fill up the stat sheet as he is a good rushing quarterback. If he does, and the Niners continue to be a great team, +5000 will be a steal.

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