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NFL running back season props & over/under total yards odds

Green Bay running back AJ Dillon

The NFL running back position has undergone a lot of changes over recent years. It used to be that each team had one ‘bell cow’ running back who would get all the work. However, due to injuries, more teams are undergoing a ‘running back by committee’ approach and will have multiple runners splitting carries. This allows us to find value in guys who have a path to getting carries that some betting sites may be overlooking. The season is right around the corner, and here are our best picks when it comes to running backs’ yardage totals.

AJ Dillon

AJ Dillon is a bruising running back who will be entering his third NFL season. Last season, he broke out with 803 rushing yards, and barring injury, he should improve on that number. Dillon is in a Green Bay Packers backfield that already has Aaron Jones, but Jones is aging and will be used more in the receiving game. That will open up more carries for Dillon and he should feast with those opportunities. Also, the Packers traded arguably the best WR in the NFL in Davante Adams, and that should signal a transition to a more run-heavy approach. That all benefits Dillon, who should have no trouble clearing 750 yards for the season if all goes to plan.

Over 750.5 total yards


Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook has been one of the running backs in the NFL over the past few seasons. He has cleared 1,100 yards in each of the past three years and has racked up a lot of carries in that time. While he is only 27, his heavy workload means he’s getting up there in age when it comes to running backs. We expect his work to get cut back in this coming season under a new coach. Kevin O’Connell is more prone to passing than his predecessor, Mike Zimmer. This all signifies a change in the Vikings’ offensive mentality that will limit Cook’s touches. While he is extremely talented, he is a risky bet at this stage in his career, and that makes the under very appealing on what is a high line at 1,150 yards.

Under 1,150.5 total yards


Trey Lance

Trey Lance will be the starting QB for the San Francisco 49ers after sitting on the bench last year, his rookie season. Lance is a very athletic QB who may not have the best arm yet. He is still young and can improve in that aspect, but this season we expect him to rely on his legs. Young quarterbacks usually are quicker to leave the pocket and scramble rather than staying in there and taking a hit. That should be the case for Lance, who will be using his legs a lot this season. He is very athletic for a QB, and as long as he stays healthy, he should be scrambling a ton. The line of 500 yards is very low for an athlete of his ability, so Lance should smash the over on his rushing totals.

Over 500.5 total yards


Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott has been a dominant running back during his career, and while he is aging, the Cowboys have shown no interest in letting Elliott rest. Last year, Elliott struggled at times, but the Cowboys still gave him 237 carries and ‘Zeke’ was able to clear 1,000 yards. In fact, every year of his career Elliott would have covered this yardage total, and while he is older, the Cowboys will still give him a ton of carries. He will split time with back-up Tony Pollard, but it’s still Elliott who owns this backfield. Apparently, Elliott looks ripped in training camp and he is motivated to improve on last season. Of course, you have to take these pieces of news with a grain of salt, but the line of 850 yards is way too low for a player of Zeke’s caliber. Expect him to get a lot of work and easily clear this yardage total, even if he doesn’t look as explosive as he once did.

Over 850.5 total yards


Damien Harris

Damien Harris is a solid running back for the New England Patriots and he had 929 yards last season. However, the Patriots have an ascending running back in second-year player Rhamondre Stevenson who should be in for a bigger role this season. Also, the Pats took two RBs in the 2022 NFL Draft. This all signifies a plan to move on from Harris, and that should mean less work for him this year. While Harris is good, he is not as explosive as what Bill Belichick would want, and that makes him expendable. Harris should be used as a bruising back, but considering how packed the Patriots’ backfield is, he will struggle for game time. As such, the under at 825.5 total yards is a great value bet at this point in the offseason.

Under 825.5 total yards


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