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Nicolau v Perez UFC preview & betting picks | April 27, 2024

Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Nicolau -188.68 at Bovada | Perez +155 at Bovada
When Saturday, April 27 – main card from 4pm PDT
Where UFC APEX – Las Vegas, United States
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), Foxtel (AU), UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez at the Apex in Las Vegas is headlined by a pair of top-10 flyweights in search of a bounce-back victory. Matheus Nicolau had his momentum interrupted in his most recent outing, and the unlucky Alex Perez is in rebuild mode after a rough couple of years. The 125-pounders always put on an energetic display, and this bout should be no different.

Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez fight preview

Matheus Nicolau

Matheus Nicolau


Alex Perez

Alex Perez

19-3-1 MMA record 24-8-0
31 Age 36
5’6″ Height 5’6″
125lbs Weight 125lbs
66″ Reach 65.5″
Brazil Nationality USA

Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) suffered an unfortunate first-round knockout to Brandon Royval in his most recent appearance, ending a six-fight win streak. The 31-year-old was cut from the UFC in 2018 following a single loss, but he took his medicine, dropped back to the lesser promotions, and worked hard to rebuild his career. He is ranked fifth in the flyweight division, and an impressive win on the big stage would do his title aspirations no harm.

The Brazilian boasts a BJJ black belt and trains out of the legendary Jackson MMA camp in Albuquerque where Jon Jones, Holly Holms, and other former champions have honed their craft. He is more of a volume striker than a knockout artist, relying on pressure to set up takedown attempts and score points. Fighters can react to KO defeats with a loss of confidence, but Nicolau has taken more than a year off since the Royval fight to rebuild and regain his conviction.

Alex Perez (24-8-0) has been matched with three of the premier flyweights in the past few years, losing a title fight to Deiveson Figueiredo in late 2020, then to current champion Alexandre Pantoja in 2022, and again to rising star Muhammad Mokaev in March this year. Prior to facing the cream of the 125-pound division, Perez had carved out a solid three-fight win streak over opponents of similar ranking to him. He has proved susceptible to elite grappling in the past, and this makes for a challenging matchup.

The 31-year-old brings more striking power than his opponent and will need to carefully pick his attacking spots if he hopes to remain upright. He can get a little wild in the opening exchanges but does boast an excellent winning rate with the judges. It is difficult to gauge his mindset following the consecutive losses, and he faces a quick turnaround, but Perez cannot be completely discounted.

Matheus Nicolau v Alex Perez betting prediction

This bout looms as a classic clash of styles, with Nicolau holding a distinct advantage on the mat and Perez bringing a more strike-heavy approach. The opening round will tell if Perez can elude the takedowns, manage the range, and land his shots. Nicolau holds the superior recent record and can be backed either by decision or submission, with the top UFC bookmakers giving us a bit more value for the latter.

Matheus Nicolau by submission


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