Saturday’s MLB betting picks & best value bets – July 23, 2022

Taking center stage on Saturday’s Major League Baseball (MLB) schedule is Toronto All-Star Alek Manoah visiting the Red Sox, Steven Matz starts for the Cardinals in Cincinnati, and Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole takes the bump in Baltimore. Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for Saturday, July 23rd starting at 1:10 p.m ET.

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New York Yankees (-245) @ Baltimore Orioles (+205)

The Yankees and Gerrit Cole have been pretty good bets this year. If you’ve taken New York on the moneyline in his starts, you’ve won 14 out of 19 bets. If you’ve taken the Yankees to win by at least two runs in Cole’s starts, you’re only 10-9, however, so keep that in mind.

When it comes to the first five innings, though, you can bet on Cole to leave with a lead. He’s 9-2 this year, with no decisions in games he’s allowed no runs (once) and one run (thrice, plus one loss as well).

Against Baltimore, Cole has been nasty, allowing just 27 hits in 127 at-bats. While 12 of those hits have gone for extra bases, only two have gone for homers. It all adds up to a .553 OPS and .196 batting average against. Austin Hays is the only Oriole who’s been comfortable in the batter’s box against Cole. He’s four-of-10 with two doubles, so consider placing a player prop bet on him to have multiple total bases.

Baltimore is expected to start Jordan Lyles, who is 6-8 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. He’s limited the Yankees’ extra-bases against him, but has allowed 40 hits in 157 at-bats, including six dingers. Josh Donaldson is seven-for-13 with a double and a triple. Giancarlo Stanton, who broke a baseball in the All-Star Game, is seven-for-18 with two double and a dinger, and Anthony Rizzo is eight-for-28 with a double and two dingers. Do with that information what you will, but obviously take the Yankees in the first five innings and on the moneyline.

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St. Louis Cardinals (-150) @ Cincinatti Reds (+130)

Steven Matz will go for the Cardinals in Cincinnati, and while he hasn’t been great, he hasn’t been as bad as Mike Minor, who is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Minor has allowed 20 hits in 64 at-bats to the Cardinals, with four doubles and five dingers. That’s an .827 OPS and .277 batting average against. All-Star Paul Goldschmidt is six-for-12 with a double and two dingers, and Tyler O’Neill is four-of-six with a double and two dingers against Minor. Consider both for prop bets when it comes to multiple hits and multiple total bases.

Matz might only be marginally better than Minor, but he’s got the 11th-best offense supporting him (.723 team OPS), while Minor has the sixth-worst (.684 team OPS). The Reds also have the second-worst bullpen when measured by WHIP (1.48), and the absolute worst when measured by ERA (5.42). Take St. Louis in the first five innings and on the moneyline. Parlaying the Cardinals with the Yankees on the moneyline pays just +134 with Bovada.

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Toronto Blue Jays (-150) @ Boston Red Sox (+130)

A bet on Alek Manoah tends to win money. Toronto has won 12 of his 19 starts, and he’s 10-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. And against the Red Sox he’s been incredible, holding Boston to a .432 OPS and .162 batting average against him over 66 plate appearances. Of the 11 hits Boston batters have managed, just four have gone for extra bases.

Boston will counter with Kutter Crawford, who’s starting just his fifth game of the season. He’s 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP and will have unfamiliarity working for him the first time through the lineup. Expect lefties to light him up. He’s allowed an .841 OPS to lefties while stifling righites (.600 OPS). Toronto’s third-best offense shouldn’t struggle getting on the scoreboard, however (.759 team OPS).

Take Toronto in the first five innings and on the moneyline. A moneyline trifecta featuring the Yankees, Cardinals, and Blue Jays pays +291.

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