St Kilda v Western Bulldogs AFL R6 betting picks | April 18, 2024

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs best bets

Round 6: Saints v Bulldogs AFL match preview

Kicking off round six in the AFL on Thursday night, the stuttering St Kilda host the struggling Western Bulldogs at Melbourne’s Marvel Stadium in a contest that neither side can afford to lose.

After trailing from the opening minute against the short-priced Giants in round five, St Kilda kicked six goals to GWS’s one in the final quarter to lose by a single point. In the game prior they managed to claw back a big deficit against the Tigers, suggesting a trend of starting slow and finishing fast.

Key Saints defender Dougal Howard looks ready to return to the AFL after recovering from a serious hamstring strain. New recruit Paddy Dow is also nearing an anticipated comeback from a pre-season knee injury, while midfielder Hunter Clark is still dealing with a persistent calf strain. Zak Jones and Arie Schoenmaker have been standout performers at VFL level and are pushing for promotion after racking up huge disposal numbers.

The Western Bulldogs produced one of their weakest performances of the 2024 AFL season with a 29-point capitulation against the Bombers last Friday night. Scoring opportunities dried up for the Dogs in the second half, and they kicked just three goals after the main break despite winning the inside 50 count. With just two wins from five games, the Dogs are on thin ice.

Bulldogs midfielder Tom Liberatore is set to miss this contest through concussion, with the out-of-favour Caleb Daniel looming as a possible replacement. Riley Garcia made a strong case for inclusion by grabbing 36 disposals in the reserves, while James Harmes was not far behind with 28 touches. Lacklustre recent efforts from Oskar Baker, James O’Donnell, and Laitham Vandermeer have them all on the chopping block as coach Luke Beveridge attempts to reignite his squad.

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs betting strategy

While the Bulldogs have played well below their potential in 2024, we might need to see a return to form before supporting them. The Saints have been hot and cold but are playing a solid brand of footy at this stage of the season. The Saints should win it and cover the skinny 3.5-point line, paying -111.11 on Bovada.

St Kilda’s Bradley Hill was red-hot against the Giants with 33 disposals, three tackles, and one goal. Lining up on a wing after spending a lot of time on the halfback flank in recent seasons, the former Hawk is doing more work in the forward half and should have chances to hit the scoreboard against a porous Bulldogs defence. Online bookmakers are paying +100 for Hill to kick a goal at any time.

This game has all the hallmarks of a low-scoring affair. The last time these sides met, 133 points were kicked, and the Bulldogs have been inefficient this season in front of the big sticks. Expect this game to produce less than 160.5 points for a return of -111.11 with the top AFL betting sites.

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