UFC 272 main card preview & best bets – Saturday, March 5

Rafael dos Anjos will face Renato Moicano in the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC 272 card in Las Vegas. Here’s a look at this catchweight bout as well as the other three fights on the main card leading up to the main event of Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal.

Catchweight: Rafael dos Anjos (-170) vs Renato Moicano (+145)

Rafael dos Anjos (30-13-0) will be fighting for the first time since November of 2020 on Saturday. The former UFC Lightweight Champion made a successful return to the lightweight division with a split decision win over Paul Felder in what was the Fight of the Night in that event. Prior to that win over Felder, dos Anjos had gone just 1-4 over his previous five fights with four decision losses against most of the top fighters in the welterweight division.

Renato Moicano (16-4-1) steps in on short notice in this fight to replace Rafael Fiziev, who is unable to compete on Saturday after a positive COVID-19 test. Moicano is 3-1 over his last four fights with the only loss over that stretch coming via lockout to the fighter he is replacing in this co-main event. The 32-year-old has never lost by decision with three knockout losses and one submission loss to date.

We’re going to take a shot on Moicano getting underdog odds here. Under normal conditions we might go the other way, but dos Anjos has been preparing for a heavy-hitter in Fiziev; the sudden switch to a talented grappler coupled with the long layoff could trip dos Anjos up in this one.

Featherweight: Edson Barboza (+132) vs Bryce Mitchell (-152)

Edson Barboza (22-10-0) was knocked out by Giga Chikadze in his last fight, snapping a two-fight winning streak that included a knockout win over Shane Burgos. Barboza is now just 2-4-0 over his last six fights and 3-6-0 over his last nine. Bryce Mitchell (14-0-0) is off to a perfect 14-0 start as a professional including a 4-0 record in the UFC.

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The 27 year old will get a sharp uptick in challenge here as Barboza will be the most difficult opponent he’s faced to date. With that said, Barboza’s best days appear to be behind him, and Mitchell has looked the part of a legitimate contender so far with a Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night already included in his hot start with the UFC. We’ll go with him to pass this test and remain undefeated.

Welterweight: Kevin Holland (-320) vs Alex Oliveira (+270)

Kevin Holland (21-7-0) had one of the most impressive calendar years in UFC history in 2020 with a perfect 5-0-0 record that included four knockout wins and three Performance of the Night honors. Holland has two losses and a no contest (due to being knocked out by an accidental headbutt) since then. He’ll have the perfect opportunity to get back on track against Alex Oliveira (22-11-1), who has lost three straight fights and is just 2-6 over his last eight bouts. Expect him to do just that with a knockout win.

Heavyweight: Sergey Spivak (-215) vs Greg Hardy (+185)

Greg Hardy (7-4-0) opened his professional career with a 5-1-0 record that included five knockout wins, but he’s cooled off since then with a 2-3 record over his last five fights. Sergey Spivak (13-3-0) had a three-fight winning streak snapped with a knockout loss to Tom Aspinall last September. Spivak is undoubtedly the more talented heavyweight, but he’s got two knockout losses in the UFC and will be facing a very heavy hitter in Hardy on Saturday. Hardy’s power makes him a worthwhile underdog pick in this main card opener.