UFC 283 Teixeira v Hill best bets & top odds – 22/1/2023

This weekend’s UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro pits local hero Glover Teixeira against surging prospect Jamahal Hill for the vacant light heavyweight title. Can the ageing warrior conjure a miracle in front of his home fans and clinch UFC gold for a second time?

Glover Teixeira (33-8-0) is the living epitome of never-say-die. The 43-year-old made his UFC debut in 2012, fought for the light heavyweight strap against Jon Jones in 2014 to no avail, and that might have been the end of his combat career. But the Brazilian was not finished and battled every possible contender for seven years before finally securing the elusive belt in 2021. A rough patch from 2016 to 2018 saw him almost cut from the roster, but this guy does not quit.

So, what are the secrets of his longevity? Teixeira is a wizard on the mat; 10 of his wins have come via submission, often when he was losing and needed a finish. In the stand-up department Teixeira can appear flat footed at times and is susceptible to being knocked out by a clean strike, as seen by his loss to Rumble Johnson.

Teixeira’s path to victory at UFC 283 is very simple: avoid the superior striking of his opponent and land takedowns early in the fight. From top position he can use his bulk to smother the skinnier Hill, land heavy ground-and-pound, and work for submissions. Without the takedowns, his chances are almost certain to be extinguished.

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Despite years of wear and tear, Teixeira is as tough as nails and his legendary determination can be unnerving for those standing opposite. More than one opponent has appeared irritated that the tired old man just refuses to go away. This strategy almost paid dividends when Teixeira lost his belt in a crazy brawl against Jiri Prochazka in June 2022. He was seconds away from finishing the fight on several occasions during the final rounds to complete what would have been an epic title defence. Alas, in a mad scramble, Teixeira was submitted himself via rear naked choke.

Jamahal Hill (11-1-0) is the new kid on the light heavyweight block. He has not faced the calibre of opponent that Teixeira has met, so this fight represents a step up in class. His solitary loss was to Paul Craig, who also fights on this card, back in 2021. Hill’s elbow was dislocated during the bout, but he refused to submit before suffering the TKO loss. Since then, Hill has looked impressive with knockout wins over Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, and Thiago Santos.

The American is a tall and rangy fighter with excellent footwork and octagon awareness. The only potential impediments to victory here are Hill’s lack of big-fight experience, and his ground game, which is bound to be tested by Teixeira. A round or two spent on his back being controlled and pounded with heavy elbows will derail any gameplan.

Hill has a basketball background and is clearly the superior athlete. His path to victory is clear: keep the fight standing, pick his shots, and wait for an opening to land a knockout blow. The longer the bout remains upright, the more confident he will become that the title is within his grasp. If it all goes to plan, Hill will find his range in the second or third round and be crowned the new light heavyweight champ after a mere 13 fights — an impressive accomplishment.

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