UFC Fight Night 199 main card preview & best bets – 18/12/2021

Belal Muhammad will put his five-fight win streak on the line this Saturday night when he takes on Stephen Thompson in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 199. This bout is one of five fights on the main card leading up to the headline act of Chris Daukaus vs Derrick Lewis in Las Vegas.

Welterweight: Stephen Thompson (-255) vs Belal Muhammad (+215)

Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) suffered a decision loss at UFC 264 to Gilbert Burns, snapping a two-fight winning streak that he had compiled with convincing wins over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. Belal Muhammad (19-3-0) is 9-1-0 over his last 10 fights including a current stretch of five straight wins, most recently defeating Demian Maia in June. Interestingly, each of Muhammad’s last two losses have come against Neal and Luque, the two men Thompson recently beat.

Can Muhammad finally take the next step and prove that he’s ready to earn a statement win against a top-ten opponent? It’s a testament to how big of a test this is for Muhammad that Thompson is such a big favorite despite a 3-4 record over his last seven fights. This just looks like an awful matchup for Muhammad on paper; he isn’t great at closing space on his feet and Thompson is one of the best at defending with his outstanding kicks and speed. The price makes Muhammad look tempting, but in reality it’s far more likely he’ll be frustrated all night as Thompson chips away with strikes en route to victory.

Women’s Strawweight: Amanda Lemos (-360) vs Angela Hill (+285)

Amanda Lemos (10-1-1) suffered the only loss of her professional career in her UFC debut against Leslie Smith back in 2017. Since then, Lemos is 4-0-0 with two straight knockout wins over Livia Renata Souza and Montserrat Ruiz. Angela Hill (13-10-0) enjoyed a nice hot streak last year with three straight wins, but she was 1-3 before that run and is 1-3 since. Lemos has the clearly superior skillset and should come away with the win in this one.

Bantamweight: Ricky Simon (-275) vs Raphael Assuncao (+235)

Ricky Simon (18-3-0) has shaken off back-to-back losses to Urijah Faber and Rob Font to go 3-0 over his last three bouts. Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0) has lost each of his last three fights, most recently getting knocked out by Cody Garbrandt back at UFC 250 in June of 2020. Assuncao was 12-1 before his last three fights, but it seems as though age has caught up to him; and he’s over a year older than the last time we saw him, too. Simon’s only real weakness is his striking while standing and Assuncao isn’t really the type of fighter that can exploit that; this should be a relatively easy win for Simon.

Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot (-185) vs Carlos Diego Ferreira (+160)

Mateusz Gamrot (19-1-0) suffered the first loss of his career by split decision in his UFC debut against Guram Kutateladze and has shaken that off with a knockout win over Scott Holtzman and a submission win over Jeremy Stephens. Carlos Diego Ferreira went 6-0-0 from 2015 through 2020, but has lost his last two fights against Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie. Putting aside that one speed bump against Kutateladze, Gamrot has the tools to be a top lightweight someday and is being undervalued on the betting board in this spot.

Featherweight: Cub Swanson (-200) vs Darren Elkins (+170)

Cub Swanson (27-12-0) had a two-fight winning streak snapped in his knockout loss to Giga Chikadze in May, falling to 2-5 over his last seven fights. Darren Elkins has won back-to-back fights since going 0-4 over his previous four bouts. Both of these veterans still have some fight left in them despite their best years being behind them. We’re taking Swanson here; it’s hard to fault him for the loss against the red-hot Chikadze, and he’s been facing tougher opponents than Elkins has in recent years.