UFC Vegas 39 main card preview & best bets – Saturday, October 9

Randy Brown faces Jared Gooden in a welterweight matchup in the co-main event slot at UFC Vegas 39. We’ll take a look at that match and the other three bouts on the main card leading up to the main event of Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez this Saturday night.

Welterweight: Randy Brown (-225) vs Jared Gooden (+190)

Randy Brown (13-4-0) bounced back from a knockout loss to Vicente Luque last August with a submission win over Alex Oliveira at UFC 261 in April. Brown has won three of his last four fights with two of those wins coming by submission and one by knockout. Jared Gooden (18-6-0) picked up his first win in the UFC with a knockout win over Niklas Stolze in July. Prior to that win, he had started off 0-2 in the promotion with decision losses to Alan Jouban and Abybakar Nurmagomedov.

This is a somewhat underwhelming co-main event. Brown hasn’t been able to find his footing in the UFC and string a handful of wins together yet, but he’s far more established at this level than Gooden is. Look for Brown to control the tempo in this one en route to a decision victory.

Flyweight: Matheus Nicolau (-192) vs Tim Elliott (+167)

Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1) has compiled a 6-1 record over his last seven fights including a 3-1 record in the UFC. Nicolau was released by the UFC in 2019, but he made his return in March with a split decision win over Manel Kape. Tim Elliott (17-11-1) is finally enjoying some success in the UFC with two straight wins over Jordan Espinosa and Ryan Benoit after going 2-8 in his previous 10 fights with the promotion. Nicolau is a far more promising prospect and he should get the job done with a decision win on Saturday.

Women’s Flyweight: Sabina Mazo (-177) vs Mariya Agapova (+152)

Sabina Mazo (9-2-0) had a three fight winning streak snapped when she lost to Alexis Davis in February. Mariya Agapova (9-2-0) also had a three fight winning streak snapped in her last fight, though the loss came in far more stunning fashion as she lost as a -1400 favorite against Shana Dobson. Agapova is an all-or-nothing fighter that has picked up each of her last four wins in the first round. Mazo likely wins this fight if she can weather the early storm, but at this price we’ll take a shot on Agapova to get back in the win column with an early finish.

Middleweight: Phil Hawes (-310) vs Deron Winn (+260)

Phil Hawes (11-2-0) has won each of his last seven fights including a 3-0 start to his UFC career. Deron Winn (7-2-0) is just 2-2 through his first four fights with the UFC, most recently defeating Antonio Arroyo by decision to snap a two-fight losing streak. This matchup seems tailor-made to keep Hawes’ hype train rolling with another knockout win.