Dern vs Rodriguez UFC Vegas 39 preview, best bets & top odds

Mackenzie Dern carries a four-fight winning streak into her main event match against Marina Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 39. Dern and Rodriguez will both try to take another step towards a shot at the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship with a win this Saturday night.

Dern vs Rodriguez main event analysis

Mackenzie Dern (11-1-0) has strung together four straight wins and has earned three of those wins via first-round submissions over Hannah Cifers, Randa Markos, and Nina Nunes. All three of those submission wins earned Dern Performance of the Night honors as well. The only loss of Dern’s career came to Amanda Ribas after a 17-month maternity hiatus. Dern has looked far sharper since shaking off the ring rust.

Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2) will be Dern’s toughest opponent to date. The only loss of Rodriguez’s career came last year in a razor-thin split decision loss against Carla Esparza. Rodriguez has bounced back from that loss with two wins in 2021: a knockout against Amanda Ribas and a decision win at flyweight over Michelle Waterson. Ribas was undefeated in the UFC with a 4-0 record before being knocked out by Rodriguez.

Dern vs Rodriguez betting predictions

This matchup is going to offer an intriguing clash of styles. Marina Rodriguez is an excellent striker that will easily have the upper hand if she is able to keep this fight off of the mat. Mackenzie Dern, meanwhile, is an elite grappler and submission specialist that will clearly have the upper hand if she is able to get Rodriguez on the ground.

The scouting report on Dern has been the same for years. While she isn’t awful in the striking game, she is outmatched in it against just about every opponent she faces. Conversely, she has an obvious edge over all of her opponents on the mat. Some bettors keep trying to fade Dern and hoping that her opponent stays out of trouble but Dern keeps finding ways to quickly put them away with a submission maneuver.

Bettors who like Rodriguez should be betting on her to win by knockout and bettors that prefer Dern should be betting on her to win by submission. This doesn’t look like a match that will go all five rounds; Dern will either score a submission win or eventually succumb to Rodriguez’s significant strikes. We lean towards Dern extending her streak with another submission win.