2022 FIFA World Cup top goalscorer odds & best bets

The 2022 FIFA World Cup is less than a week away, and the excitement is building. Here, we are going to cover the best bets and roughie picks for the Golden Boot in Qatar, as well as the star strikers to steer clear of.

Best bets for 2022 World Cup top goalscorer

Having announced his arrival as an elite player during France’s World Cup win four years ago, Kylian Mbappe looks poised to be their star man once again. They are going to feed him through-balls all tournament long and Mbappe will flash the pace that has made him so dangerous. We expect France to advance deep into the World Cup and Mbappe will be one of the reasons why. The only issue with this bet is that France’s other star striker, Karim Benzema, will also score a lot; outside of them, however, this French team doesn’t have a ton of goalscorers.

There are three certainties in this life: death, taxes, and Neymar dominating for Brazil in the World Cup. Neymar has scored six goals in 10 World Cup games and he is the clear star of this team. While Brazil have more attacking talent than they have in years past, Neymar will still be the main man. Brazil are the favorites to win the whole tournament, and while that feels lofty, they should make a deep run — and that gives extra value to Neymar’s top goalscorer odds. Also, Brazil have an easy group where Neymar could stack goals against the likes of Serbia and Cameroon.

While this is kind of a longshot, Romelu Lukaku has the eighth-shortest odds to lead the World Cup in goals. He is the unquestioned striker for a talented Belgium squad and should have plenty of goalscoring opportunities. With Kevin De Bruyne and a crop of skilled passers behind him, Lukaku should score a ton. Belgium also should get out of their group with relative ease, and if they go on a deep run, Lukaku has a clear path to scoring a glut of goals.

Longshot picks for World Cup top goalscorer

Germany are a great team and will always be a tough out in the World Cup. However, this year, there is a lot of ambiguity on who their main goalscorer will be, and we are staking our claim on Chelsea’s Kai Havertz. We are confident he will start in every game for Germany, and while he won’t play striker, he is an attacking player who has a knack for timely goals. If the Germans go on a deep run, Havertz could stack on the goals considering all the talent playing behind him.

Uruguay are a fun team this year and have the playmakers necessary to shock the world and go on a deep run. The issue with Darwin Nunez leading the tournament in goals will be his strike partner, Luis Suarez. However, at this stage in their respective careers, Nunez is a better player. While Suarez will definitely score some goals if Uruguay advance deep into the tournament, we have more confidence in Nunez’s talent. At +5000 with Bovada, this is the most intriguing longshot bet on the board.

Players to avoid

Harry Kane is a great striker and was the leading goalscorer the last World Cup. However, due to three factors, these odds are not worth a bet. Firstly, the odds are too short; Kane is the outright favorite to be the top goalscorer, and while he deserves that, there are other players in his tier who we like more. Secondly, England have a glut of attacking talent; guys like Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford are all enjoying great seasons and will siphon off some of Kane’s goals in this tournament. Lastly, we aren’t super high on England; they have a dearth of talent in the midfield, and that should keep them from going on a deep run in the World Cup. If they don’t go on a run, Kane will have fewer games to score in, making his short odds riskier than players on other teams.

Lionel Messi is actually on a team we like to advance deep into this tournament. Argentina have loads of talent and this may actually be the year for Messi to get his elusive World Cup win. That being said, Messi has been more of a playmaker for PSG and we think he will be in a similar role for Argentina. The South Americans have loads of capable finishers on the squad, and Messi’s versatility may actually hinder his goalscoring chances. We expect Messi to play as the creator for this squad and not score as much as he has in years past.

While Cristiano Ronaldo is undoubtedly one of the two best players of his generation, these odds are more of a pipedream than a reality. Ronaldo’s odds sit at +1800 to lead the tournament in goals, and while that may be appealing, this Portugal team is not as talented as their teams of years past. Much like England, we just don’t think this Portugal side advances far enough to make Ronaldo appealing as the top goalscorer.

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