Navarro v Sabalenka US Open betting picks | September 5, 2024

Navarro v Sabalenka best bets

US Open 2024: Navarro v Sabalenka match preview

Second seed Aryna Sabalenka takes on home favourite Emma Navarro in the first of two women’s semi-finals at the US Open on Thursday in New York.

Sabalenka has been in rollicking form over the past month, steamrolling all that have stood in her way at the year’s final tennis Grand Slam.

This comes after the Belarusian stormed to the Cincinnati WTA 1000 title without dropping a set, racing past the likes of Elina Svitolina, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula in dominant fashion.

The world No.2 has dropped just one set at Flushing Meadows, when she made a strangely slow start against No.29 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova before blasting past the Russian.

Outside of this, it has been nothing but plane sailing for Sabalenka, with clean wins over No.33 seed Elise Mertens and Olympic gold medallist Qinwen Zheng in her past two matches.

Navarro has also been impressive in terms of the names she has taken out.

The American made a fast start, winning her first two matches for the loss of just two games each.

She then battled through two three-setters, the latter of which came against defending champion Coco Gauff.

Most recently, she ousted the in-form Paula Badosa in straight sets to make the semi-finals.

Navarro v Sabalenka US Open predictions

Despite Navarro’s heroics and home crowd support at the US Open, there is very little that indicates this clash will be anything but a one-sided victory to Sabalenka.

Online bookmakers are paying -454.55 for the favourite to get up, but there is much better value beyond the head-to-head market.

Sabalenka should do enough to win by a margin of more than 4.5 games, which returns -117.65 at Bovada.

The last time these two met, at the French Open earlier this year, the scoreline was 6-2, 6-3.

Given that Sabalenka won by seven games on a surface that does not favour her power game, that margin should only be greater in this clash.

Also, she has covered the 4.5-game spread in each of her matches at the 2024 US Open.

Sabalenka has been getting off to fast starts in New York, and that should continue against Navarro.

She won her last two sets 6-2 and 6-1 and is likely to do the same against Navarro, making under 8.5 games for the opening set a great bet at +162 with top tennis betting sites.

The one set Sabalenka has dropped at this tournament was 6-2, so on the off chance she starts slowly, there is a bit of protection in this wager.

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