Sabalenka v Keys betting picks & odds | Australian Open 2025
Women’s singles final: Aryna Sabalenka v Madison KeysAustralian Open Odds & Match Info |
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|---|---|
| Best odds | Sabalenka -357.14 at Bovada | Keys +275 at Bovada |
| When | Saturday, January 25 – 7:30pm AEDT |
| Where | Rod Laver Arena – Melbourne, Australia |
| Watch live | Australia: Nine, Stan Sports International: ESPN (US), TSN (CA), Eurosport (UK), SuperSport (ZA), Sony Sports (IN) |
Sabalenka v Keys match preview – Australian Open women’s final
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will square off in the 2025 Australian Open women’s final at Rod Laver Arena this Saturday night. Both have played tremendously well in Melbourne far, making for a decider ripe with betting opportunities across the best tennis bookmakers.
Sabalenka has been the more impressive of the two over the past fortnight. She is a two-time champion, after all, and now has a chance to make it three in a row at the first major of the season — a feat none have achieved since 1999.
The Belarusian is unbeaten this year with 11 wins in a row after she won her warm-up event in Brisbane. In fact, she has only lost two sets this year, both to Russian players Polina Kudermetova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Now she faces an American who has had a special year herself.
Keys is 13-1 on the year, with her only loss coming against Clara Tauson in Auckland. What is interesting about that loss is that Tauson has a very similar profile to how Sabalenka plays: an aggressive baseliner with lots of power in her game.
This is a fantastic matchup on paper because we have two strong baseliners. Nobody does this better than Sabalenka, however, which is why tennis betting odds are so heavily in her favour coming into this match. The rivalry so far has favoured her as well, with Sabalenka winning four of the five matches they have played.
The only win for Keys against Sabalenka came on grass, which is no surprise given her pedigree on the surface. Their most recent match was last year in Beijing, which Sabalenka won in straight sets. The last Grand Slam match they played was in 2023 at the US Open, which was a semi-final and a really tight win for Sabalenka.
Australian Open women’s final predictions – Sabalenka v Keys
Best bet: Under 2.5 sets
It is hard to see anything but a Sabalenka victory in straight sets. Yes, Keys just ousted the in-form Iga Swiatek in the semi-finals, but that was a matchup issue. Here, the two play a similar style of tennis, and Sabalenka is simply better at it.
It does not matter if Sabalenka is playing her best or not; she just keeps winning. Given the magnitude of the occasion and what that will do for Keys’ nerves, bookmaker odds of -200 for this ending in two sets is the best bet.
Under 2.5 sets
Next best: Under 20.5 games
This pick follows a similar line of thinking to the under 2.5 sets wager but adds in a little more risk for a higher return at top Australian Open betting sites. We still like it equally because the same logic applies.
Sabalenka is just better in rallies and should overwhelm Keys without too many problems to keep the match in two sets. The defending champion will be wary of doing what Swiatek did and allowing Keys into the match, so expect maximum aggression from her for a quick finish.
Under 20.5 games
Value bet: Sabalenka -3.5 first-set handicap
While this is not Keys’ first Grand Slam final, it’s been eight years since she last stood in one, and she’s a player who has combusted before in big moments. Just check the last time she played a match of this magnitude — the scoreline was 6-3, 6-0 to a lower-ranked opponent.
We think Sabalenka will jump out to an early lead, and if she does that, then beating Keys by four games in the opening set is not out of the question. It’s a risky play, but with a bit of luck it can hit.
Sabalenka -3.5 games (first set)
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