Thursday’s MLB best bets & top prop picks – August 11, 2022

Featured on the Major League Baseball (MLB) schedule for Thursday is Zach Plesac starting for Cleveland in Detroit, Merrill Kelly taking the mound for Arizona against Pittsburgh, and Drew Smyly opening for the Cubs in Cincinnati. Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for Thursday, August 11, starting at 1:05pm ET.

Cleveland Guardians (-165) @ Detroit Tigers (+140)

Zach Plesac might be 2-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but against the Tigers he’s allowed just a .208 batting average and .597 OPS over 124 plate appearances. Willi Castro has done most of the damage. He’s got seven of the Tigers’ 25 hits in just 15 at-bats, with a double and triple. Consider betting on him to have multiple total bases on Thursday.

Garrett Hill is expected to start for Detroit. He’s 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 31.2 innings pitched. The Tigers finally got him a win over Tampa Bay after losing his previous four starts. In a small sample size against Cleveland, he’s been good. The Guardians have two hits in 16 at-bats including one home run. But Hill won’t likely complete six innings. He has done so once in six starts, and Cleveland has the eighth-best reliever WHIP in MLB compared to Detroit’s 15th-ranked reliever WHIP.

Take Cleveland on the moneyline.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)

Merrill Kelly is 10-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and against the Pirates he has been near unhittable over a small sample size. In 16 at-bats, Pittsburgh batters have just two hits, with just one going for extra bases. Kelly already has a win over Pittsburgh this season, going five innings and allowing two earned runs.

JT Brubaker’s numbers are quite the opposite of Kelly’s. He is 2-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and against the Diamondbacks he’s been terrible. In 29 at-bats, Arizona batters have seven hits with five going for extra bases. That’s a .258 batting average and 1.076 OPS against. Josh Rojas is three-for-six with two doubles, so consider betting on him to have multiple total bases. Christian Walker is also two-for-two with a homer – do with that information as you will.

Bottomline, take the Diamondbacks in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more runs. Remember, the Pirates have the fourth-worst bullpen in baseball. Parlaying Arizona with Cleveland on the moneyline pays +155 with Bovada.

Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Cincinnati Reds (-110)

The Cubs and Reds will play amongst the corn in the annual Field of Dreams game in Dubuque County, Iowa. Drew Smyly will start for Chicago and is 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHP, but against the Reds he has been outstanding. In 57 at-bats, the Reds have 13 hits including a double and four homers. That adds up to a .178 batting average and a .546 OPS. Most of that damage has been done by Aristides Aquino, who is four-of-nine with three home runs, so you might want to place a bet on him to have multiple total bases and maybe a home run.

The Reds will counter with Austin Voth, who is 2-1 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He is usually good for one time through the lineup, and can be OK the second time through. He has allowed a homer to Ian Happ, which is the only hit he’s allowed in five plate appearances against the Cubs.

Take the Cubs in the first five innings and on the moneyline because the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.07). A moneyline trifecta featuring the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Guardians pays +386.

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