English Premier League top picks for Matchweek 33 | April 16-17

The Premier League is slowly winding to a close and teams only have six to nine games remaining. The table is starting to settle down and while it’s been known the title is going to either City or Liverpool, there is still a lot of intrigue. The Champions League qualification race is still wide open and while Tottenham and Arsenal are the favorites, West Ham and Man United are lurking closely behind. Either way, this weekend sees 12 teams have a match and we have the three best picks within those matchups.

Arsenal FC vs Southampton

Arsenal have been one of the more frustrating teams to bet on this year. They never seem to have it all figured out and right when you trust them, they will go out and lose. They have lost their last two games to inferior opponents but before that, they were on fire. Arsenal are still firmly in the top four race and currently sit in fifth place with 54 points through 30 matches. Whether or not their poor form continues remains to be seen, but Arsenal should have the motivation necessary to win this away game. They need to catch Tottenham in order to get top four and should use that intensity to beat a lowly Southampton team.

Southampton have been largely the same team all year. While they have some big wins, they are a mid table club and don’t possess too much talent. Southampton currently sit in 14th place with 36 points through 31 games. Arsenal have a clear advantage in just about every position and should win. That’s the issue with Arsenal, though, and they tend to struggle in the games they should win. However, Arsenal is the bet in this game due to their talent advantage. While you can’t rule out the Gunners laying a dud, this line is good value for an Arsenal win.

Norwich City vs Manchester United

While Manchester United is hard to trust, Norwich is that bad. Norwich only has one win in their last 10 games and while that happened in their last game, it’s hard to see them carrying on the momentum. Norwich are firmly in the relegation zone with 21 points through 31 games. That’s good enough for last place. While Norwich has some interesting talents, they do not match up to United at all and when Norwich has to play away, bad things tend to happen to them. They only have two wins away from home all season and that makes United the bet in this fixture.

Manchester United are having a disappointing season. While they have some duds on their report card against bad teams, this shouldn’t be too much of a struggle for them. Manchester United have a loaded team of individuals who struggle to play as a team. That poses more problems for them when they are playing against a good, structured team but Norwich is not that. There’s a good chance United will win by up to five goals and it’s hard to envision a scenario where they don’t cover this number. The talent gap, plus United playing at home, gives Manchester a clear advantage in this game and makes them the bet.

Leicester City vs Newcastle United

A couple of weeks ago, Newcastle would’ve been the obvious pick in this game but given recent form, the value is on Leicester. After Newcastle rattled off five wins in six EPL matches, they only have won one in their last four. Newcastle are back to where they have been for a large portion of the season and are in 15th place with 34 points through 31 games. It makes no sense that they would be such big favorites and while they are at home, their recent form is awful.

Leicester, on the other hand, have been pretty solid recently. They only have one loss in their last six matches and that is a vast improvement on their play for large parts of the season. Coming into this season with top six aspirations, Leicester has disappointed with 40 points through 29 matches. While they are in ninth, they are nine points behind eighth place Wolves and it would be quite a feat if they were able to catch them. Even so, Leicester have a good team who appear to have finally figured it out and should have the firepower to beat Newcastle in a tough away game. Either way, this game will be closer than the books think and there is a lot of value in betting on Leicester.

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