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Friday’s MLB betting picks & best value bets – July 22, 2022

MLB best bets

On the second day of Major League Baseball (MLB) games after the All-Star break, Corbin Burnes and the Brewers host the Rockies, Kyle Gibson and the Phillies welcome the Cubs, and Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox against the Guardians. Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for Friday, July 22, starting at 6:40pm ET.


Chicago Cubs (+115) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-135.14)

Kyle Gibson is expected to start for Philadelphia, and he’s been himself this season: 5-3, 4.35 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP. That’s pretty much what you can expect from Gibson, and he’s held most of the Cubs in check in a small sample size. Chicago batters have amassed 17 hits in 54 at-bats against Gibson, with two doubles and four dingers. But 13 of those hits, including two doubles and two dingers, belong to Yan Gomes, who is 13-for-32 with a 1.097 OPS against Gibson. Definitely bet on him to have multiple total bases and, perhaps, multiple hits.

The Cubs will counter with Justin Steele, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Only Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber have seen him before, with Castellanos going four-of-eight with two doubles and a dinger. Bet on him to have multiple total bases as well, and maybe multiple hits. The Phillies have the eighth-best team OPS, so expect Philadelphia to hold a lead after five innings.

Take Philadelphia on the moneyline and to win by two or more runs, as the Phillies also have the 11th ranked WHIP amongst relievers in MLB.

Philadelphia Phillies to win

-135.14
@
Bovada

Colorado Rockies (+190) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-227.27)

Corbin Burnes is projected to start for the Brewers, and he is 7-4 with a brilliant 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The All-Star has handled the Rockies about as well as you’d expect. Colorado batters are just 13-for-57 with three doubles. That’s just a .620 OPS against Burnes.

Going for Colorado will be Antonio Senzatela, who is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Those numbers are slightly inflated due to playing 40-plus innings at high elevation, but Senzatela has actually been worse on the road (6.86 ERA) than at home (4.02 ERA). The fact Senzatela has only ever averaged a 2.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his career does not bode well for him and the Rockies against Milwaukee’s 12th-ranked offense (.721 team OPS). The Brewers also have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball, so you best believe they’ll be making solid contact on Friday.

Take Milwaukee in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more. Parlaying the Brewers with the Phillies on the moneyline pays +151 with Bovada.

Milwaukee Brewers to win

-227.27
@
Bovada

Cleveland Guardians (+140) @ Chicago White Sox (-163.93)

Lucas Giolito is scheduled to start for the White Sox on Friday, with the Guardians coming to the Windy City. Giolito hasn’t been the man he was last season. His 1.40 WHIP is 30 points higher than his 2021 WHIP, and his 4.69 ERA is more than a run worse than it was in 2021. But against the Guardians, he’s been excellent. Cleveland batters have managed 24 hits in 115 at-bats against Giolito, with just eight going for extra bases.

That all adds up to a .426 OPS against Giolito, with much of the damage being done by Amed Rosario, who is six-for-15 with the team’s only triple. You might consider placing a player prop bet on Rosario to have multiple hits or multiple total bases. Jose Ramirez also has three extra-base hits and eight overall in 31 at-bats, so do with that what you will.

Countering for Cleveland is Cal Quantrill, who is 6-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Six White Sox batters have a .333 batting average or better against Quantrill, though. Former batting champion Tim Anderson is five-of-14 with a double, and Luis Robert is four-of-11 with another double against Quantrill. Only two Chicago batters are hitless against Quantrill, so expect the White Sox to lead after five innings.

Chicago also has the better bullpen based on WHIP, so take the White Sox on the moneyline. A moneyline trifecta featuring the White Sox, Phillies, and Brewers pays +303.

Chicago White Sox to win

-163.93
@
Bovada

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