MLB Friday betting picks & top value bets – June 3, 2022

The weather is certainly getting warmer across North America, making for some fun baseball to watch. As we enter the summer months some teams will be looking to continue playing solid baseball, while others will be hoping to turn their season around. With teams like the Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, and Mariners playing well below their capabilities, this old saying feels as true as ever: it’s getting late early.

Here are some of our favorite MLB betting picks for Friday, June 3.

St. Louis Cardinals (-110) @ Chicago Cubs (-110)

Probable pitchers: Miles Mikolas vs Marcus Stroman

This NL Central battle is one that should be good all season long. The Cardinals are off to a pretty good start under the youngest manager in all of baseball, Oliver Marmol. He has guided savvy veterans like Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Albert Pujols to a 29-21 record in a division that is up for grabs.

While the Cardinals will likely be competing with the Brewers for the top of the NL Central, it wouldn’t shock us if the Cubs forced their way into a wildcard situation. The Cubs were tipped to be in for a long season, with projected win totals in the low to mid 70s across many outlets. While they haven’t been playing great baseball as of late, they have shown already this season that they can compete with teams like the Cardinals and Brewers.

This matchup should come down to starting pitching. Miles Mikolas bursted back onto the scene a few seasons ago when he returned from a stint in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants. Mikolas was a Cy Young finalist in his first year back, but we haven’t seen that kind of pitching out of him again -until now. This year, he has pitched to a modest 2.67 ERA and has surprisingly been one of the better arms in the National League.

Mikolas will be opposed by Marcus Stroman, who came to Chicago as a free agent this offseason. He has been a solid starter in his career, with flashes of dominance. While Stroman hasn’t been the same player he was during his time at Toronto and parts of his time with New York, he has still pitched to a sub-4 ERA this season across 43 innings. Stroman has been relatively inconsistent, often following a good outing with a not-so-good outing.

The Cubs offense has been pretty good as of late, but we would expect that to come to a pause in this one. Mikolas has just been a better arm this season. We will ride with the Cardinals on the moneyline in this one despite them being the road team.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-105)

Probable pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs JT Brubaker

The Pirates are coming off of a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers – no, that is not a typo. They were expected to be one of the worst teams this season, in the same conversation with the Baltimore Orioles and also their opponents this Friday night. In one weekend, the Pirates have already exceeded expectations for the year. If nothing else happens for them in the rest of the season, Pittsburgh will always have the pounding they put on the top team in the MLB for three straight games.

Why not ride the hot hand until they break? Take the Pirates on the moneyline; they’re the home team and they’re coming off of playing perhaps the best series they will play all season long. There isn’t much logic to this one – in fact, Merrill Kelly has actually been pretty good, allowing only 22 runs in 54 innings – but it’s more about Pittsburgh’s play right now rather than betting against the Diamondbacks or Kelly.

San Diego Padres (+115) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135)

Probable pitchers: Joe Musgrove vs Corbin Burnes

There aren’t many scenarios where the Padres won’t be favored in a game, and this is one of them. The Padres are taking on a top team in the National League led by the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes. He has been spectacular this year, pitching to a phenomenal 1.95 ERA in almost 65 innings.

Burnes will face these Padres for the second time in a week and a half. Just two starts ago, Burnes was tasked with shutting down the same lineup. He finished that outing going six strong innings, allowing five hits and one run in San Diego.

Joe Musgrove, on the other hand, did not appear in that series. For as good as Burnes has been, Musgrove has been better. He has pitched to a 1.86 ERA and has not allowed more than two runs in a game all season long.

We would expect this one to be a true pitchers’ duel between two of the better teams behind two of the strongest arms in all of baseball. The under on seven runs is all but a lock, while the Padres on the moneyline is an interesting bet as well at plus odds.

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