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MLB National League best bets & top value picks – April 14, 2022

MLB best bets

The 2022 MLB season is underway and we’ve already seen some pretty crazy moments thus far. As players are still getting in the groove after a shortened spring training, it will be a little while till we see teams play to their full potential, but pitchers are starting to have their second go around and things should start evening out.

The slate of games on Thursday, April 14, has some very interesting matchups. Here are some of our favorite National League baseball betting picks.

St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)

Adam Wainwright vs Brandon Woodruff

The Cardinals have had perhaps the easiest start to the season as you can have, as they’ve faced the Pirates and Royals thus far, they are sitting at 3-1 heading into this matchup with the Brewers. In four games, the Cardinals’ offense has put up 25 runs, good for 6.25 runs per game, the third best thus far. The mashing Cardinal offense will be opposed by Brandon Woodruff, one part of the three headed monster at the top of the Brew Crew’s rotation.

Last year, Woodruff pitched to a 2.56 ERA but was lit up in his first start against the Cubs. The Cubs pegged Woodruff for seven earned runs across only 3.2 innings. As mentioned before, the season is still young, especially for pitchers who have just started to really ramp up thanks to a shortened spring training. Woodruff clearly was not himself against the Cubs, and we would expect him to be a lot better in this one even against a tough Cardinals lineup.

Despite the Brewers’ struggles so far this year, they are still a great ball club and it’s just a matter of time until they figure some stuff out. The over/under total is eight runs, with Woodruff and Wainwright on the mound we love the under here.

Under 8 total runs


Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5) @ Miami Marlins (-1.5)

Kyle Gibson vs Sandy Alcantara

The Phillies have been very hot and cold thus far after an offseason where they brought in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to pair with a powerful core of Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and JT Realmuto. The ‘Broad Street Bombers’ haven’t really clicked together this year so far. We saw the true potential of this lineup on opening day when they hung a nine spot on the Athletics, but that was the last time we saw consistent signs of life out of this Philadelphia offense.

Philadelphia is clearly the better team here, but they have struggled very badly in Miami over the last couple of seasons. In fact, the Phillies are 21-27 against the Marlins since 2019 and 10-16 in Miami. The Marlins at -1.5 is a very interesting bet given the Phillies’ struggles away from Citizens Bank Park.

Miami Marlins -1.5


Atlanta Braves (+1.5) @ San Diego Padres (-1.5)

Charlie Morton vs Joe Musgrove

The defending World Series champions split a series with a terrible Cincinnati Reds team and lost a series to a Washington Nationals team that is just as bad. While it’s definitely still early, the Braves look to be a prime example of a World Series hangover. It is extremely tough for a team to play that deep into the postseason, come back the following year and repeat that same magic. It also doesn’t help that the Braves parted ways with ‘Mr. Brave’ Freddie Freeman this offseason. While Matt Chapman is a great addition, he is no Freeman, not many people are. The Braves have the roster to do it again but haven’t shown it thus far.

The Padres are in a similar type of boat. They have some of the highest expectations in the sport but underwhelmed last year. If the Padres can hold it together until Fernando Tatis Jr comes back, they should be in good shape this year. As for this game, Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove will be taking the hill, which should make runs very difficult to come by. The Padres definitely have the edge in this one, but 1.5 is too much. The Padres on the moneyline tied with the under on eight runs give you +250 odds, which seems like a good bet.

San Diego Padres / Under 8 total runs


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