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MLB Thursday betting picks & best odds – July 28, 2022

MLB best bets

In Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday, Alex Wood starts for San Francisco against the Cubs, Zack Wheeler and the Phillies travel to Pittsburgh to take on Zach Thompson and the Pirates, and Triston McKenzie continues his hot streak for the Guardians in Boston. Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for Thursday, July 28th starting at 12:35 p.m. Eastern.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Zack Wheeler has been a top-20 starting pitcher in MLB this season based on every means of measurement, posting an 8-5 record, 2.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts. He was not named to the National League All-Star team despite those numbers. And while the Pirates have four hits in 14 at-bats against him, just one has gone for extra bases.

Zach Thompson counters for the Pirates, and he’s 3-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. You’re not betting on Wheeler more than you’re betting against Thompson in this one, as Thompson has struggled against the Phillies. Philadelphia batters are five-for-18 with three doubles and a dinger against him for a .943 OPS and .295 batting average against. Nick Castellanos has two hits in five at-bats, including a double and a dinger, so bet on him to have multiple total bases on Thursday.

While Philadelphia has a middle-of-the-pack bullpen (3.84 ERA ranks 13th), the Pirates have the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball (4.64). They also have the third-worst team OPS, while the Phillies rank 11th overall. Take Philadelphia in the first five innings and on the moneyline.

Philadelphia Phillies to win

-169.49
@
Bovada

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

Alex Wood is expected to start for San Francisco, and he’s 6-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He’s managed to limit the damage the Cubs have done against him, albeit in a small sample size. In 23 at-bats the Cubs have seven hits, with one double and one dinger. That’s a .698 OPS despite a .281 batting average against.

Again, you’re not betting on Alex Wood more than you’re betting against Justin Steele, who is 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. But the five Giants he’s faced have had their way with him. In 13 at-bats, the San Francisco batters have seven hits, including a double and a dinger. That’s 1.300 OPS and .467 batting average against. Wilmer Flores is three-for-three with a dinger, so you might consider betting on him to have multiple hits or multiple total bases on Thursday.

Take San Francisco in the first five innings and on the moneyline. Parlaying San Francisco and Philadelphia on the moneyline pays +168. For better odds, consider adding…

San Francisco Giants to win

-144.93
@
Bovada

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

Kutter Crawford might have one of the best names for a pitcher in all of baseball, but he hasn’t fared well against the Guardians. In just eight at-bats against him, Cleveland batters have five hits, including a double and a dinger. That’s a 1.503 OPS and .583 batting average against. Franmil Reyes is two-for-two with the homer, and Owen Miller collected the double in his single plate appearance against Crawford.

Cleveland will counter with Triston McKenzie, who has been solid all season. He’s 7-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. That’s the ninth best WHIP in all of baseball. He’ll have unfamiliarity on his side, too, as Rob Refsnyder is the only Red Sox batter who’s seen him. He has taken McKenzie yard, however, for his lone hit in four at-bats. But McKenzie is on a roll. Cleveland has won all four of his July starts by two or more runs, with McKenzie completing six or more innings all but once. McKenzie has only allowed a single run all month, so expect that to continue for six innings on Thursday.

Behind McKenzie is a top-10 bullpen whether you use WHIP or ERA as the measuring stick. Boston’s bullpen ranks 18th in WHIP and 23rd in ERA. Take Cleveland in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more runs. Parlaying the Guardians, Phillies, and Giants on the moneyline pays a sweet +401.

Cleveland Guardians to win

-109.89
@
Bovada

There are the best MLB bets for Thursday, July 28th. Get your bets in before first pitch at 12:35 p.m. Eastern and please gamble responsibly.

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