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MLB Thursday betting picks & top value plays – April 28, 2022

MLB best bets

There are only 14 games going on in Major League Baseball, but there is still a ton of value to be found. Here are our top betting picks for April 28.

San Diego Padres (-1.5, -125) @ Cincinnati Reds (+1.5, +105)

Probable pitchers: Nick Martinez vs Tyler Mahle

This early-season matchup looks like a huge mismatch. The Padres (11-7) will head up to Cincinnati to take on the Reds (3-14) on Thursday and there aren’t very many surprises here. Tyler Mahle has been knocked around in his four starts this season, giving up 20 hits and 13 earned runs in only 17 innings. Mahle will face a Padres lineup averaging over four runs per game almost 20 games into this 2022 campaign.

There haven’t been many bright spots for the Reds this year after the ownership took an ax to the team this offseason. The Reds parted ways with Sonny Gray, Nick Castellanos, Tucker Barnhart, Wade Miley, and so many others, and they look to be poised for a down year. Other than Joey Votto’s sudden social media presence, there isn’t much to say about for this Reds team.

If anything, being at home in this one hurts the Reds. Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly arenas in baseball, so we would expect Mahle to have another rough go at it on Thursday night. Over eight runs and Padres moneyline both have a very good chance of hitting.

Over 8 total runs


Chicago Cubs (+1.5, +140) @ Atlanta Braves (-1.5, -160)

Probable pitchers: Drew Smyly vs Kyle Wright

The Cubs have been a surprise to this point given where people thought they might be heading into the season. They have looked very good and Seiya Suzuki looks to be legit. After 52 at-bats in his rookie campaign, the 27-year-old is batting .327/.463/.635 with an OPS of 1.097. Suzuki and company will go up against Braves right-hander Kyle Wright, who has been awfully stingy on the mound thus far this season. Wright has only allowed two runs across 17 innings and has been an integral part of a solid Atlanta rotation.

The defending champions are off to a slow start this year; they are 8-10 and averaging under four runs per game. It’s unclear whether this is due to the loss of one of the best bats and leaders in baseball, or because of their late run into the playoffs only a couple of months ago, or just because it’s early. The Braves are no strangers to slow starts, as they seem to do it every year under manager Brian Snitker.

This is a close call. The Braves are going to get the benefit of the doubt, however, as being the home team and defending champions, they know when to turn it on. We’ll ride with the Cubs +1.5 or the Braves moneyline in this one.

Chicago Cubs +1.5


Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5, -170) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5, +160)

Probable pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs Jose Quintana

This is a division game which surely holds some value, but the Brewers are clearly the better team. The Brew Crew have been hot and cold at times this year but have shown that they are definitely a good team. At 11-7 with one of their aces in Freddy Peralta on the mound, this is a game that the Brewers definitely should win.

It should be considered that of all the Pirates’ starting pitchers, it would be Jose Quintana who is capable of throwing a gem. It might be tough against a very good Brewers lineup, but the lefty Quintana has done it before.

In this matchup, we’d be curious to see the Peralta player props as he will be taking on a Pirates offense that doesn’t have much going for it right now. Look for the over/under on strikeouts and innings pitched for Peralta, who looks to be regaining his form from a season ago. Overall, the Brewers at -170 against a Pirates team in the midst of a rebuild is not bad value.

Milwaukee Brewers to win


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