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Monday’s MLB American League betting picks – July 4, 2022

MLB best bets

Headlining the Major League Baseball (MLB) schedule on the Fourth of July is Toronto ace Alek Manoah hosting the offensively anaemic A’s, Sean Manaea starting for San Diego against Seattle, and Zach Plesac goes for Cleveland in Detroit. Here are the best bets on games featuring American League teams scheduled for Monday, starting at 11:05am ET.

Toronto Blue Jays (-200) @ Oakland Athletics (+170)

Alek Manoah has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for Toronto this season. He’s 9-2 with a 2.09 ERA and sensational 0.96 WHIP. That ERA is fifth-best in all of baseball. The Athletics are not good offensively. Their .604 OPS is worst in MLB by a lot (16 points). Oakland has especially struggled with Manoah, going four-of-21 with just two homers for a .629 OPS. Tony Kemp has done most of the damage, going three-for-five with one of the homers. A player prop bet on him to have multiple total bases would be a good one.

Cole Irvin has been pretty good for Oakland and is expected to start for the A’s. He’s 2-6, but that’s mostly due to a lack of run support. His 3.58 ERA is competitive, as is his 1.22 WHIP. Toronto has really tattooed him, going 11-for-35 with a double, triple, and homer. A different Blue Jay has each of the extra-base hits.

Bet on the Blue Jays to win the first five innings and the game by two or more.

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5


Kansas City Royals (+195) @ Houston Astros (-230)

Justin Verlander is once again one of the top three or four pitchers in all of MLB. His 10-3 record is tied for first in all of baseball, and his 0.83 WHIP is third overall. He’s still missing bats, too, with 90 strikeouts. Just Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi. They’re a combined six-for-33 with a double and a triple.

Houston absolutely rocks Jonathan Heasley, as does much of the league. His 5.20 ERA and 1.51 WHIP are indicative of that. Four of the Astros’ seven hits against Heasley have gone for extra bases, making for a .981 OPS. Six Houston hitters have a hit against Heasley.

Take Houston in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to cover the 1.5-point handicap. Parlaying Houston and Toronto on the moneyline pays +107 at Bovada.

Houston Astros to win


Seattle Mariners (+150) @ San Diego Padres (-175)

San Diego has Sean Manaea starting against Seattle on Monday, and he’s been good, posting a 1.14 WHIP and 89 strikeouts – both are top-30 in MLB. His time in the American League means bad news for the Mariners, who are 14-of-65 with just three extra-base hits against Manaea. That’s a .439 OPS and just .165 batting average. Justin Upton has had the most success, going six-for-20 with one homerun. A player prop bet on him to have multiple total bases should cash. The fact he has almost half of his team’s hits against Manaea should tell you all you need to know about Seattle’s potential in the first five-or-so innings.

If you need more convincing, Chris Flexen is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. And against the Padres, he’s truly struggled. San Diego batters are 10-for-18 against Flexen, but just one hit has gone for extra bases. It was a homerun by Trent Grisham, who is two-for-two, as is Eric Hosmer, as is Jurickson Profar, as is Jorge Alfaro.

Take San Diego in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more. Parlaying Houston with Toronto and San Diego on the moneyline pays +225.

San Diego Padres -1.5


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