Oregon vs. Virginia 2019 March Madness spread analysis & betting tips

Betting Line: Virginia -8
Over/Under: 119 at Bovada

Cinderella Oregon (25-12) is the 12th seed in the South Region and will look to keep its great run in the Big Dance alive when the Ducks take on top-seed Virginia (31-3), which has the top-ranked defense in the nation.

These teams have not faced off since the 2011 season and in that neutral site game Virginia beat Oregon 67-54.

After Oregon, the highest seed left in the NCAA Tournament is Auburn, who are a #5 seed. The Ducks have had two blowout wins in their tournament games and their defense has been great. The big question is can their offense score facing a Cavaliers’ defense that is only giving up 55 points per game?

Virginia has only given up 56 points and 51 points, respectively, in their two games in the Big Dance and neither game was close. They have a great defense, obviously, but they did not force many turnovers at all in their last game and on top of that they were not very aggressive only taking five free throws.

This season Oregon is 22-15 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 12-24-1 and Virginia is at 24-10 ATS with an Over/Under record of 15-19.

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Oregon beat 13th seed UC Irvine in their last game 73-54 where they played great defense for a 2nd straight game. They held UCI to a FG% of only 39.2% and they had a FG% of 45.8%. Payton Pritchard did not have the best shooting game (7/18), but led the Ducks with 18 points and Louis King had 16 points on 5/10 shooting.

While Pritchard was a little off with his shot in the last game he has still averaged 19 ppg in his last five games and he leads the Ducks on the season averaging 13 ppg. King (12.9 ppg) has played great in the two NCAA Tournament games totaling 33 points and he has also upped his scoring as of late averaging 17.4 ppg in his last five games.

Virginia is coming off a 63-51 win over Oklahoma in their last game where they only gave up 22 points in the first half. They killed it on defense with the Sooners only shooting 36.5% from the floor and they had a good FG% of 48.2%. Mamadi Diakite led the way with 14 points and also pulled down nine rebounds and Ty Jerome had 12 points on 5/10 shooting.

De’Andre Hunter is the leading scorer for the Cavaliers on the season at 15.2 ppg with Kyle Guy right behind him averaging 15.1 ppg. Hunter had 10 points in the win over Oklahoma and has totaled 33 points in the tournament while Guy only had four points on terrible 2/15 shooting missing all 10 of his three-pointers in the OU win and only had eight points in the first-round win. Diakite has scored 14 and 19 points, respectively, in the two tournaments games with nine rebounds in each, which far exceeds his season averages of 7.4 ppg and 4 rpg.

Oregon Ducks betting trends

• 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall
• 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games
• 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral site games
• Under record of 6-2-1 in their last nine non-conference games

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Virginia Cavaliers betting trends

• 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games facing a team with a winning record
• 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games
• Under record of 6-1 in their last seven non-conference games

Oregon Ducks vs. Virginia Cavaliers betting prediction

We’re going with the Cavaliers to pull out the win in this Sweet 16 game, but Oregon is the betting pick.

Virginia will win behind a strong defensive performance, but they will not light up the scoreboard and not blowout the Ducks. Because of that Oregon is the team to pick to cover the spread. In what will be a low-scoring affair.

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