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Thursday’s MLB betting picks & best odds – August 4, 2022

MLB best bets

Brandon Woodruff starts for the Brewers in Pittsburgh, Juan Soto and the Padres host Colorado, and Carlos Carrasco opens for the Mets against the Braves on Thursday in Major League Baseball (MLB). Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for August 4, starting at 12:35pm ET.

Milwaukee Brewers (-200) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+170)

Woodruff has won nine of his 15 starts this season and logged a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s also struck out 101 batters. Almost a third of those strikeouts have been Pirates (32), whom Woodruff has handcuffed. In 90 plate appearances, Pittsburgh batters have just 18 hits, with six doubles accounting for the only extra-base hits. That’s a .567 OPS and .217 batting average against.

Zach Thompson was scheduled to start on Wednesday, but was given an extra day, probably with hopes that it would improve his and the Pirates’ chances against the Brewers. Milwaukee batters have 16 hits in 53 at-bats against Thompson this season, with three doubles and three dingers. That’s a .915 OPS and .302 batting average against. Christian Yelich has two of the doubles and one of the dingers in six at-bats, so place a player prop bet on him to have multiple total bases on Thursday to make up for the bet you might have made on him for Wednesday’s game.

Take Milwaukee in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more runs.

Milwaukee Brewers to win


Colorado Rockies (+210) @ San Diego Padres (-250)

Juan Soto joined the Padres on Wednesday after being traded from Washington on Tuesday. He will certainly improve the Padres’ 18th-ranked team OPS of .699. All-Star Joe Musgrove should not need much support, however; he is 3-2 in home games with a 2.29 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Rockies have managed to get 13 hits off him in 45 at-bats for a .289 batting average and .705 OPS against, but much of that was due to a rough start in Colorado in which Musgrove allowed five runs over five innings. He rebounded at home to beat the Rockies, pitching six shutout innings.

Colorado is expected to counter with Kyle Freeland, who is 6-7 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He has had success against San Diego despite allowing plenty of runs. The Rockies are 3-0 in his starts against the Padres despite Freeland allowing 11 runs over 17 innings pitched. The Padres have 17 hits, including six doubles, a triple, and two homers against Freeland in 61 at-bats. That’s an .855 OPS and .279 batting average against. Trent Grisham is two-for-five with the two homers, so do with that information what you will.

San Diego is considerably better than it was the last three times facing Freeland, especially in the bullpen, where the team added closer Josh Hader and rental reliever Brandon Drury. The Padres enter the day with the 14th-best reliever ERA and 10th-best bullpen WHIP. Colorado ranks second-worst and third-worst in those categories, respectively.

Take San Diego on the moneyline. Parlaying the Padres with the Brewers on the moneyline pays +110 with Bovada.

San Diego Padres to win


Atlanta Braves (-110) @ New York Mets (-110)

A couple of really good pitchers do battle in New York on Thursday, with Kyle Wright starting for Atlanta. He is 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He lost his only start against New York this season 3-0, going seven innings and allowing all three runs (all earned). The Mets are nine-for-28 with a double and a dinger against him this season for an .809 OPS and .321 batting average against.

Carlos Carrasco counters for the Mets, and he is 11-4 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s 6-1 at home with a 3.30 ERA, however. He has stifled Atlanta batters, holding them to six hits in 29 at-bats this season, with just three going for extra bases. That’s a .207 batting average and .568 OPS against. Carrasco was brilliant in his last start in Miami, tossing almost eight innings of shutout ball. He has allowed just three runs in 30 July innings, making for a 0.90 monthly ERA. He tossed eight innings of shutout ball against the Braves back on May 3, so don’t be surprised if he goes deep and pitches well. Atlanta might have the better bullpen, but it might not matter.

Take the Mets in the first five innings and on the moneyline. Parlaying New York, San Diego, and Milwaukee on the moneyline pays around +273 with most betting sites.

New York Mets to win


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