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Thursday’s MLB betting picks & top value plays – July 14, 2022

MLB best bets

Martin Perez and the Rangers play host to the Mariners in Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday, Framber Valdez and the Astros visit the Angels, and Blake Snell starts for the Padres in Colorado. Here are the best bets for the MLB action on July 14, with games starting from 12:10pm ET.

Houston Astros (-155) @ Los Angeles Angels (+135)

Framber Valdez has been outstanding for the Astros, going 8-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He’s struck out 96 in 109 innings pitched. Against the Angels he’s been even better. Los Angeles hitters are just 24-of-110 with five extra-base hits for a .542 OPS.

Countering for Los Angeles is Reid Detmers, who’s 2-3 with a 4.22 ERA despite a 1.05 WHIP. He’s struck out 51 batters in 64 innings, so he’s been victimized by some bad luck. He’s handled Houston hitters quite well, limiting the Astros to four hits in 23 at-bats. The moment he comes out of the game, however, Houston will have the upper hand. The Angels have the 18th-ranked WHIP amongst relievers compared to Houston’s third-ranked reliever WHIP.

Stay away from betting the first five innings, but take Houston on the moneyline. That pays -155 at Bovada.

Houston Astros to win


San Diego Padres (-140) @ Colorado Rockies (+120)

The Padres visit the Mile High City on Thursday, where they’ll enjoy their at-bats against Kyle Freeland. He’s 4-7 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season and has struggled to miss bats. He’s struck out just 66 in 97.2 innings pitched. He’s held most of the Padres in check, however, limiting San Diego hitters to 32 hits in 125 at-bats, with 15 going for extra bases. That’s an effective .623 OPS against. Manny Machada has given him trouble, going 10-for-32 with six doubles, so bet on him to have multiple total bases on Thursday.

Blake Snell will start for San Diego, and he’s struggled to a 1-5 record with a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has struck out 61 in just 46.1 innings pitched, however. Against Colorado, he’s been quite good, holding the Rockies to a .569 OPS over 117 at-bats. That’s just 29 hits and eight extra-base hits allowed. Behind him is the fifth-best bullpen in baseball (1.15 WHIP).

Take San Diego in the first five innings and on the moneyline. Parlaying the Padres with the Astros on the moneyline pays +186.

San Diego Padres to win


Seattle Mariners (-111.11) @ Texas Rangers (-111.11)

Charlie Culberson has absolutely raked against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, going eight-for-16 with a triple and a homer. Consider betting on him to have multiple hits or multiple total bases on Thursday.

You might consider placing a player prop bet on Marcus Semien to collect multiple total bases as well. He’s eight-for-33 with two doubles and a dinger against Gonzales.

Marcus Semien 2+ total bases


Milwaukee Brewers (-116.28) @ San Francisco Giants (-105.26)

Brandon Belt is five-for-10 with a double and a dinger against Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, and Joc Pederson is four-of-10 with a double and a dinger. Consider betting on either or both to have multiple total bases or multiple hits on Thursday.

Also consider betting the under, as Burnes has held the Giants to a .340 OPS despite Belt’s and Pederson’s success. Carlos Rodon has also fared well against the Brewers, allowing just eight hits in 34 at-bats (.475 OPS).

Brandon Belt 2+ total bases


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