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Thursday’s MLB betting picks & value plays – August 25, 2022

MLB best bets

In Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday, Aaron Nola and the Phillies host the Reds, Drew Rasmussen and the Rays host the Angels, and the Cardinals visit Marcus Stroman and the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Here are the best bets on MLB games scheduled for August 25th starting at 1:10pm. ET.


Cincinatti Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola has been a lot better than his 8-10 record. His 3.25 ERA ranks 26th in MLB, and his 0.96 WHIP is tied for fourth overall. His 174 strikeouts is fifth-most in MLB. Only six Cincinnati batters are familiar with Nola, and they have enjoyed their 16 at-bats against him, collecting eight hits, including three extra-base hits. Nola will have the support of the seventh-best run-scoring offense (569 runs scored) in baseball, but it has still resulted in that 8-10 record.

The Reds are expected to counter with Justin Dunn, who is making his fourth start of the season. He’s been stretched out to go five innings, which he did against Pittsburgh, allowing three hits, four walks, and one run. The Phillies will be seeing him for the first time, so Dunn will have the advantage the first time through the lineup. But if he only completes five innings, the worst bullpen in baseball (4.88 ERA) has to pitch four innings. Expect the Phillies to pounce all over that bullpen.

Take Philadelphia on the moneyline and on the run line.

Philadelphia Phillies to win

-303.03
@
Bovada

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

Zac Gallen is on one of those streaks bettors ought to ride ’til the end. He’s completed seven or more innings in each of his last three starts, allowing a total of nine hits and three walks over 21.1 innings pitched. He hasn’t allowed a single run over that stretch. The Royals hit him hard the first time they saw him this season, collecting seven hits in 22 at-bats with three doubles and a dinger for a .318 batting average and .966 OPS, but that was way back in May. Gallen is considerably better now than he was then, as indicated by his 1.00 ERA, .167 opponent batting average, and 0.78 WHIP in August.

Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer, who is 6-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Singer has shown an ability to go deep in games this season, pitching seven or more innings five times in 17 starts. He also misses bats, collecting 114 strikeouts over 110 innings pitched. Singer could keep Kansas City in this game, but once he’s done for the day, the worst team WHIP amongst relievers takes over for the Royals.

Take Arizona on the moneyline. Parlaying the Diamondbacks with the Mariners on the moneyline pays +140 with Bovada.

Arizona Cardinals to win

-129.87
@
Bovada

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussen is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay on Thursday, and he is 8-4 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Rays have won his last three starts and seven of his last nine. They have covered the 1.5-run spread in six of those seven wins. Only four Angels have stepped into the batter’s box against Rasmussen, none of which have a hit. Behind Rasmussen is an excellent bullpen with the third-best WHIP and seventh-best ERA in MLB.

The Angels will start Patrick Sandoval, who is 4-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He has been able to limit the damage the Rays have done against him, allowing four hits in 23 at-bats with two of them going for homers. That’s a .731 OPS despite just a .174 batting average against. Sandoval has struggled in day games, however. His 3.58 ERA is almost a run higher than his ERA in night games (2.59). Sandoval is coming off a complete game shutout win over Detroit, but before that he had completed six innings just once in his last eight starts. Sandoval has failed to complete five innings in six of his 20 starts this season, and the Angels’ relievers have posted the 19th-ranked ERA in MLB.

Bet on the Rays to win the first five innings and the game. Parlaying Tampa Bay with Philadelphia on the moneyline pays just +114.

Tampa Bay Rays to win

-163.93
@
Bovada

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