T20 World Cup 2024: Australia in trouble after loss to India

India handed Australia their second defeat of the Super Eight stage at the T20 World Cup on Monday, leaving the world No.2 team teetering on the brink of elimination.

Australia now require Bangladesh to defeat Afghanistan in their match on Tuesday, but not by too much.

Cricket bookmakers don’t fancy the 2021 champions’ chances.

Once second-favourites to India, Australia have now slipped to the fourth line of betting, with long odds of +900 to win the T20 World Cup.

Can Australia still reach T20 World Cup semi-finals?

Australia’s loss to India puts them in a precarious position with one match remaining in Group 1.

They sit on one win and two losses from their three matches, with a net run rate of -0.331.

This puts Afghanistan and Bangladesh both behind them on the table. However, the two play each other on Tuesday and both have a chance to move ahead of Australia.

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If Afghanistan win, Australia will be eliminated and the Afghanis will make their maiden World Cup semi-final.

If Bangladesh win, then it comes down to net run rate. Australia need Bangladesh to win, but by a small enough margin that they don’t overtake their net run rate.

Should Bangladesh bat first and make 140, for instance, Australia would need Afghanistan to score at least 79 runs in response.

If Bangladesh chase a similar total, they’d need to overhaul it in 12.4 overs in order to knockout Australia.

What bookmakers are saying about Australia’s chances

T20 World Cup bookies are expecting that Afghanistan vs Bangladesh will be a tight match.

Most bookmakers have the Afghanis as favourites, with odds of around -200 to +130 in their favour.

If these odds come to fruition, then Australia will be eliminated from the T20 World Cup.

Interestingly, outright betting odds still put Australia (+900) as a better chance of winning the title than both Afghanistan (+1200) and Bangladesh (+25000).

These odds illustrate how unlikely it is that Bangladesh will be able to defeat Afghanistan by a high enough margin to make the semi-finals themselves.

On the balance of probability, Australia won’t make the T20 World Cup semi-finals. If they do, however, then watch out: they’re still a decent shot of going all the way.

Just ask England, who were once on the ropes and now hold the third line of betting at +375 with the top T20 betting sites.

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