2025 NASCAR Grant Park 165 betting preview & free picks

The NASCAR Cup Series storms back to Chicago for the third running of the Grant Park 165 on Sunday, July 6. The 2.2-mile, 12-turn street course winds through Grant Park’s iconic landmarks, offering a spectacular urban backdrop for this unique race, which covers 75 laps (165 miles) with a purse exceeding US$11.7 million.

Shane van Gisbergen returns as the +150 favorite with the top online sportsbooks after winning the inaugural race here in 2023 and scoring another street-course win in Mexico earlier this year. Yet unpredictability reigns in Chicago; both prior winners grabbed the lead with eight laps to go, and dramatic reversals have been common. Alex Bowman went from last in 2023 to victory in 2024, while ‘SVG’ flipped that script last season.

Crucially, weather remains a wild card. Rain has influenced both previous Chicago races, and with showers in the forecast, tire strategy and track conditions could swing outcomes and open doors for underdogs.

Hendrick Motorsports enters as the powerhouse team, with William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott sitting 1-2-3 in points, and the organization riding a streak of 26 straight races with at least one top-five finish.

Meanwhile, Chicago serves as Round 2 of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge, where 16 drivers battle for a $1 million prize and valuable playoff momentum.

International intrigue is high with three Aussie Supercars stars — SVG, Will Brown, and Jack Perkins (in Xfinity) — all aiming for glory, while bubble drivers like Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, and Bubba Wallace fight to secure their playoff spots on a circuit notorious for chaos.

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NASCAR Grant Park 165 betting odds

• Shane van Gisbergen – +225
• Christopher Bell – +825
• Kyle Larson – +850
• Tyler Reddick – +1300
• Ty Gibbs – +1300
• Chase Elliott – +1300
• William Byron – +2000
• Alex Bowman – +2000
• Chris Buescher – +2200
• AJ Allmendinger – +2800
• Michael McDowell – +2800
• Kyle Busch – +3300
• Ross Chastain – +3300
• Chase Briscoe – +3300
• Will Brown – +3300
• Austin Cindric – +4000
• Daniel Suarez – +4000
• Ryan Blaney – +4000
• Carson Hocevar – +5000
• Ryan Preece – +5000
• Joey Logano – +6600
• Denny Hamlin – +6600
• Corey Heim – +6600
• Todd Gilliland – +8000
• Justin Haley – +8000
• Katherine Legge – +8000
• Josh Bilicki – +10000
• Cody Ware – +10000
• Ty Dillon – +10000
• Erik Jones – +10000
• Austin Hill – +10000
• Austin Dillon – +10000
• Riley Herbst – +10000
• Noah Gragson – +10000
• Zane Smith – +10000
• John H. Nemechek – +10000
• Brad Keselowski – +10000
• Bubba Wallace – +10000
• Cole Custer – +10000
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr – +10000
• Josh Berry – +10000

More odds available at Stake.com

NASCAR Grant Park 165 betting predictions

Shane van Gisbergen to win

Shane van Gisbergen remains the road-course benchmark. Despite last year’s Chicago meltdown, he’s shown elite car control on street circuits and comes off a road-course win in Mexico. The Kiwi’s aggressive braking and cornering are tailor-made for Chicago’s tight layout. Backing him at +150 with Stake.com offers value for a driver who can dominate once he’s out front, especially given how strong Trackhouse Racing have been on street and road courses.

Chase Elliott top-three finish

Chase Elliott still seeks his first road-course win in the Next Gen era, but his consistency is undeniable. He’s notched top-five finishes in the last three road-course events and has the second-best average finish (9.8) on road courses in this generation. His patience and smooth driving style suit the slick streets of Chicago, and after snapping his winless streak in Atlanta, he’ll ride momentum into Grant Park. A podium bet at +400 odds with Stake.com.

Chris Buescher top-five finish

Chris Buescher has quietly become one of NASCAR’s road-course specialists. He owns the best average road-course finish in the Next Gen car (8.8) and enters Chicago riding a four-race top-10 streak, tied for the longest of his NASCAR Cup career. While outright speed may be a stretch, Buescher’s steady RFK Ford should thrive in Chicago’s rhythm sections. A top-five bet at +400 odds with Stake.com leverages his consistency without needing him to win in chaos.

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