2025 NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 betting preview & free picks

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into wine country this Sunday for the Toyota Save Mart 350, the third road-course stop on the 2025 schedule and Round 3 of the In-Season Challenge. Sonoma Raceway’s 1.99-mile, 12-turn circuit is renowned for its 160 feet of elevation changes, blind uphill corners, and brutal braking zones, testing drivers’ patience and car control across 110 laps (218.9 miles) for a purse topping US$11 million.

Sonoma is a track where strategy can flip the race on its head. Five of the last six winners led the most laps, yet no pole-sitter has finished better than 12th since 2021 — a stat that keeps qualifying bets intriguing. Last season, Martin Truex Jr. snatched victory despite Kyle Larson controlling much of the early race. Over the past 10 Sonoma races, the average margin of victory has been under 2.4 seconds, underscoring how close and chaotic these battles can be.

Hendrick Motorsports enters strong, boasting 14 road-course wins in the Next Gen era and placing multiple cars in the top 10 here over recent seasons. Kyle Larson is a two-time Sonoma winner and has claimed five poles in the past seven races, making him one of the drivers to beat on home turf.

Meanwhile, Shane van Gisbergen arrives as the +130 favorite with the top online sportsbooks after back-to-back road-course wins in Mexico City and Chicago. Although this marks his first NASCAR Cup start at Sonoma, the Kiwi’s average finish of 2.33 on road courses this season — and his knack for navigating tight, technical layouts — makes him a headline threat.

Beyond the front-runners, look for familiar names like Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, and Chase Elliott to figure into the mix, each with strong road-course credentials and multiple top-10s at Sonoma. Weather looks dry for Sunday, but tire strategy and fuel windows always loom large in the California hills, where mistakes or pit gambles can swing the outcome in a flash.

NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 betting odds

• Shane van Gisbergen – +160
• Kyle Larson – +520
• Michael McDowell – +1200
• Tyler Reddick – +1300
• Chris Buescher – +1500
• Chase Elliott – +1500
• Ty Gibbs – +1500
• Christopher Bell – +2000
• William Byron – +2200
• AJ Allmendinger – +2500
• Ross Chastain – +3300
• Kyle Busch – +3300
• Ryan Blaney – +5000
• Chase Briscoe – +6600
• Alex Bowman – +6600
• Ryan Preece – +6600
• Daniel Suarez – +10000
• Joey Logano – +10000
• Carson Hocevar – +10000
• Denny Hamlin – +10000

More odds available at

NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 betting predictions

Shane van Gisbergen to win

It’s impossible to ignore Shane van Gisbergen’s road-course dominance. He has won two of the three road races this season, led over 40% of laps on such circuits, and enters Sonoma riding supreme confidence. While it’s his NASCAR Cup debut here, Trackhouse Racing have performed well at Sonoma, and van Gisbergen’s raw skill makes him the rightful favorite at +130 odds with . If he qualifies strongly, he’ll be hard to topple.

Chris Buescher top-three finish

Sonoma has become a personal playground for Chris Buescher, who’s finished second, fourth, and third here in the last three years. He leads all drivers in average road-course finish in the Next Gen car, trailing only ‘SVG’. At +215 odds with , he’s one of the most appealing podium plays in the field.

AJ Allmendinger top-five finish

AJ Allmendinger’s odds are too juicy to ignore for a top-five result at +325 odds with . He’s finished sixth in both of his last two Sonoma races and remains one of the best pure road-course talents in NASCAR. With solid practice pace, he can easily climb into the top five — even if a win feels out of reach.