2025 NRL preliminary finals betting picks & predictions

Only four teams are still standing in the race for the 2025 NRL title — the Storm, Sharks, Broncos, and Panthers — and this weekend’s preliminary finals will decide who moves on to the grand final.

On Friday night, Melbourne hosts Cronulla in yet another blockbuster at AAMI Park. Two days later, Brisbane take on Penrith at a packed Suncorp Stadium, aiming to shut down the Panthers’ bid for a sixth consecutive grand final appearance.

With huge stakes and plenty of rugby league betting value in the markets, here’s our full NRL Finals Week 3 preview featuring expert picks, best bets, and a multi to follow.

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Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks

Friday, September 26 – 7:50pm AEST – AAMI Park, Melbourne

The Storm are no strangers to September football. This is their 10th preliminary final in the past 11 years, and once again they’ll enjoy home-field advantage at AAMI Park.

A few shaky results late in the regular season raised questions, but the return of Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes, Ryan Papenhuyzen, and Cameron Munster restores the spine that’s made Melbourne one of the most feared outfits in the NRL — and the betting favorites with the top online sportsbooks to win.

Since 2021, Craig Bellamy’s team has posted a dominant 45–9 record at AAMI Park and has beaten the Sharks in seven of their last eight meetings there. The front-row trio of Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Christian Welch, and Tui Kamikamica should set the platform for Munster and Hughes to orchestrate the attack.

Cronulla enter as in-form underdogs after dispatching the minor premiers in Canberra. Braydon Trindall’s booming kicks have complemented Nicho Hynes’ playmaking nicely, and if Jesse Ramien and Ronaldo Mulitalo get quick ball on the edges, they can cause headaches. Still, Melbourne’s experience in high-pressure games and their fortress-like home ground make them tough to go past.

Storm vs Sharks best bets

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers

Sunday, September 28 – 4:05pm AEST – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Sunday’s matchup is a replay of the 2023 decider, but this time the Broncos have the Suncorp cauldron behind them. Under Michael Maguire, Brisbane have gone from an inconsistent start to one of the league’s hottest teams, capped by Ben Hunt’s remarkable golden-point field goal to book this prelim. They’re on a five-game win streak and welcome back captain Adam Reynolds.

However, it’s not all positive news. Billy Walters (injury) and Patrick Carrigan (suspension) are big losses, and the Broncos have dropped their last six clashes with Penrith at home.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have rediscovered their rhythm after a rocky start to the season. Nathan Cleary remains the conductor, Brian To’o provides strike on the edge, and Isaah Yeo’s steady work through the middle keeps Penrith rolling forward when it matters most.

While Penrith’s big-game pedigree is unrivaled, Brisbane at full tilt remains a dangerous proposition. A Broncos blowout isn’t off the cards, and the +420 on offer for the outsiders to win by 13 or more is tempting.

Broncos vs Panthers best bets

NRL Finals Week 3 multi tips

• Melbourne Storm by 1–12 points
• Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer
• Brisbane Broncos by 13+ points
• Payne Haas anytime tryscorer