2025 Southern 500 betting picks & NASCAR predictions

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs kick off with the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on Sunday, August 31, with the green light set to show at 6pm ET.

The 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval demands precision, patience, and smart tire management over 367 laps and 501 miles. As the opening event in the round of 16, victory here secures an automatic berth into the next stage, making strategy and execution critical.

Darlington’s abrasive surface, narrow racing groove and punishing walls make it one of NASCAR’s most iconic challenges. Expect plenty of playoff drama as contenders battle for early momentum while non-playoff spoilers look to steal the spotlight.

Darlington has long rewarded drivers who balance aggression with patience, and this year’s field is stacked with championship hopefuls.

Kyle Larson leads the market with the top sports betting sites on the back of his consistent speed and strong record at Darlington. Denny Hamlin, a five-time winner at the track, and William Byron, one of the best performers in the Next Gen era, sit close behind, while Tyler Reddick looms as a serious threat with his stellar Darlington form.

Further down the Southern 500 odds board, Joey Logano has proved he can win here, while Bubba Wallace enters with strong recent form and consistent top-10 results at Darlington. With 16 playoff drivers and several dark horses in the mix, this Southern 500 has all the ingredients for a classic.

NASCAR Southern 500 betting odds

• Kyle Larson – +475
• Tyler Reddick – +525
• William Byron – +580
• Ryan Blaney – +580
• Denny Hamlin – +580
• Chase Briscoe – +1300
• Christopher Bell – +1300
• Joey Logano – +2200
• Kyle Busch – +2200
• Bubba Wallace – +2500
• Chase Elliott – +2500
• Chris Buescher – +2800
• Ross Chastain – +2800
• Brad Keselowski – +2800
• Josh Berry – +3300
• Alex Bowman – +6600
• Carson Hocevar – +8000
• Austin Cindric – +8000
• Ty Gibbs – +8000
• Ryan Preece – +8000
• Erik Jones – +15000
• Shane van Gisbergen – +30000
• Josh Bilicki – +50000
• Derek Kraus – +50000
• Cody Ware – +50000
• Ty Dillon – +50000
• Riley Herbst – +50000
• John H. Nemechek – +50000
• Cole Custer – +50000
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr – +50000
• Zane Smith – +50000
• Justin Haley – +50000
• AJ Allmendinger – +50000
• Todd Gilliland – +50000
• Austin Dillon – +50000
• Michael McDowell – +50000
• Daniel Suarez – +50000
• Noah Gragson – +50000

More odds available at BetOnline

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NASCAR Southern 500 betting predictions

Denny Hamlin to win

Hamlin owns five career wins here, including the spring race earlier this year, and boasts a 7.9 average finish across 26 starts — the best among active drivers. He thrives on abrasive, technical tracks, and his Joe Gibbs Racing No.11 Toyota has shown elite speed in recent weeks. At +580 with BetOnline, Hamlin is primed to open his playoff campaign with a statement victory.

William Byron top-three finish

In his last seven starts at Darlington, Byron has recorded one win, three top-five finishes, and led a staggering 328 laps — more than any other driver. After qualifying on the pole and finishing runner-up in the spring, Byron and Hendrick Motorsports clearly have the speed to contend again. At +145 with BetOnline, he’s a strong bet to be in the mix late.

Tyler Reddick top-five finish

If there’s a driver poised to for a top-five finish, it’s Reddick. The 23XI Racing standout has led 317 laps at Darlington in the Next Gen era — the third-most among all drivers — and has posted three top-three finishes in his last four starts here. With his tire-management skills and consistency on high-wear tracks, Reddick is the perfect bet for safe punters — and for parlays — at -188.68 with BetOnline.