2025 Toyota Save Mart 350 post-qualifying preview & betting picks

NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Preview

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to wine country this Sunday for the Toyota Save Mart 350, the third road-course stop of the 2025 season and Round 3 of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge. Sonoma Raceway’s 1.99-mile, 12-turn layout remains one of the most technical challenges on the schedule, with brutal elevation changes and unforgiving braking zones testing even the sharpest drivers.

And no one has passed that test lately like Shane van Gisbergen (SVG). Fresh off a pole-winning lap of 1:14.594 — his third pole of the year — SVG continues to assert his dominance on road courses and sits as the favorite with the top online betting sites. The Kiwi comes into Sonoma looking for his third Cup Series victory of 2025 after wins in Mexico City and Chicago. His pace this weekend suggests he’s again the man to beat, although history is against him: no pole-sitter has finished better than 12th at Sonoma since 2021.

Lining up alongside SVG is Chase Briscoe, who delivered a strong qualifying run for Joe Gibbs Racing. William Byron, Ross Chastain, and road-course ace AJ Allmendinger complete a stacked top five, all capable of keeping SVG honest once the green flag waves.

Kyle Larson qualified a disappointing 11th, but Sonoma has been a happy hunting ground for him before, with two career victories here. Meanwhile, Chris Buescher, one of the sport’s quiet road-course specialists, starts 14th, leaving him with work to do if he’s to replicate his recent Sonoma podium finishes.

The stakes are higher than ever as drivers not only chase victory but also critical points in NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge. With only seven races left before the playoffs, urgency is reaching fever pitch.

NASCAR Toyota / Save Mart 350 betting odds

• Shane van Gisbergen – +105
• Kyle Larson – +675
• AJ Allmendinger – +1050
• William Byron – +1300
• Ty Gibbs – +1300
• Ross Chastain – +1600
• Tyler Reddick – +1600
• Christopher Bell – +1800
• Chase Elliott – +1800
• Michael McDowell – +1800
• Chase Briscoe – +2200
• Chris Buescher – +2500
• Ryan Blaney – +3300
• Alex Bowman – +6600
• Kyle Busch – +8000

More odds available at

NASCAR Sonoma Betting Predictions

Shane van Gisbergen to win

It’s hard to bet against SVG given his record and blistering pace in qualifying. He’s won two of the three road races so far and starts from pole in a car that appears dialled in after overnight changes. The major concern is the history of polesitters failing to convert at Sonoma, but SVG’s superior tire management and calm under pressure make him a worthy favorite at reduced odds of +105 at .

AJ Allmendinger top 5 finish

AJ Allmendinger remains one of NASCAR’s purest road-course racers. He’s qualified a strong 5th, and the Kaulig Chevrolet has shown legitimate pace through practice and qualifying. Sonoma suits his smooth style, and with track position crucial, Allmendinger has a great chance to finally crack the top five after finishing 6th the last two years. +125 at offers solid value.

William Byron top 3 finish

William Byron qualified an excellent 3rd and has quietly become one of the best all-around drivers in the Cup garage. While he’s yet to win on a road course in the Next Gen car, he’s consistently in the mix and could capitalize if SVG falters or strategy flips the order. At +310 with for a podium, he’s a live threat.

NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Save Mart 350 Qualifying Results