UFC 264 main card predictions & best value bets – July 10, 2021

This Saturday’s UFC 264 card this is loaded with great fights despite not having any title bouts on it. Here’s a look at the four fights on the main card that will get the sold-out crowd in Las Vegas warmed up before the main event of Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor.

Welterweight: Stephen Thompson (-175) vs Gilbert Burns (+150)

Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) is enjoying a career resurgence in the late stages of his MMA career. Thompson kicked off his career with a 13-1 record including a 8-1 record in the UFC that earned him a shot at the UFC Welterweight Championship against Tyron Woodley. That fight ended in a draw and was the start of a 1-3-1 downswing as Thompson went on to lose his rematch against Woodley and then two more fights against Darren Till and Anthony Pettis. But back-to-back decision wins in dominant fashion over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal have Thompson back in the driver’s seat and potentially on the verge of another title shot.

Gilbert Burns (19-4) was red hot before his knockout loss to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 in February. Burns had won each of his previous six fights leading up to that title bout including an impressive knockout win over Demian Maia and a dominant performance in a decision with over Tyron Woodley. The 34-year-old opened as a favorite in this matchup, but heavy action on Thompson has swung the line all the way up to Thompson -175.

This feels like an overreaction to Burns’ loss against the elite Usman; Burns is an excellent athlete and a heavy hitter that is more than capable of pulling off an upset here. Thompson has looked great in his last two fights and has done a good job at keeping his opponents at bay, but we’ll happily take the underdog odds on a very good and dangerous fighter in this one.

Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa (-128) vs Greg Hardy (+108)

Tai Tuivasa (11-3) has bounced back from losing three straight fights to pick up knockout wins in each of his last two bouts against Stefan Struve and Harry Hunsucker. Greg Hardy (7-3) was most recently knocked out by Marcin Tybura in his last trip to the octagon. This should be a fun fight with both men gunning for the knockout early; six of Hardy’s seven professional wins have come by knockout and 10 of Tuivasa’s 11 professional wins have been via knockout.

Hardy is a dangerous striker, but he hasn’t really shown us that he can beat quality heavyweights. All of his wins have come against fairly underwhelming competition, and his last two shots at a step up in competition in fights against Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura both ended in losses. Tuivasa should be able to fend off Hardy’s offense and be the one to come out on top here.

Women’s Bantamweight: Irene Aldana (-130) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+110)

Irene Aldana (12-6) lost her last fight against Holly Holm last October. Yana Kunitskaya (14-5) has picked up two straight wins including an impressive decision victory over Ketlen Vieira in February. Aldana was 5-1 before her loss to Holm, and Kunitskaya is 4-1 in her last five fights in the UFC since losing her debut to Cris Cyborg back in 2018. This should be a very competitive fight between two women that will be comfortable keeping the fight off the mat.

Aldana unleashes a lot of strikes but also absorbs a lot of them too. Her accuracy in this bout could be the deciding factor, but there’s value here on the more calculated Kunitskaya to pick her spots and earn enough points to pick up the upset win.

Bantamweight: Sean O’Malley (-900) vs Kris Moutinho (+550)

Why not kick off this pay-per-view card with a thrilling knockout? Sean O’Malley (13-1) bounced back from a loss to Marlon Vera (in which he was injured in the first round) with a knockout win over Thomas Almeida. Each of O’Malley’s last three wins have come by way of knockout and have earned O’Malley Performance of the Night bonuses. Kris Moutniho (9-4) will make his UFC debut in place of an injured Luis Smolka and will be lucky to make it out of the first round.