Almeida v Lewis UFC Fight Night preview & betting picks

Veteran heavyweight Derrick Lewis travels to hostile territory when he faces surging Brazilian Jailton Almeida for UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena in Sao Paulo. Lewis holds the UFC knockout record, while Almeida is a submission specialist, setting up a real clash of styles.

Jailton Almeida v Derrick Lewis fight preview

Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis

Jailton Almeida (19-2-0) is riding a 14-fight win streak and looks certain to contend for the UFC heavyweight title if he can remain injury-free. The Brazilian may be the best BJJ practitioner to ever grace the 265-pound division, and he boasts 12 submission wins across his professional career. He broke into the top 10 with a quick rear-naked-choke win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in his most recent appearance and is short-priced to produce a similar result here.

The 32-year-old also possesses heavy striking skills to complement his ground game, but he would be unwise to stand and trade in this matchup. If Almeida can score an early takedown, he should be able to dominate his opponent on the canvas and negate his weight advantage and fearsome knockout power.

Derrick Lewis (27-11-0) found a much-needed knockout win over Marcos Rogério de Lima after enduring three straight stoppage losses. The 38-year-old has long relied on his booming right hand to win his contests, but he has lost some of his fast-twitch muscle abilities in recent years after a lengthy career in the cage. We expect him to hang up the gloves soon, possibly in Brazil if the result goes against him.

Lewis will always be a dangerous opponent due to his ability to finish fights with one punch, but that may not be enough against a younger, fitter, more versatile athlete like Almeida. The opening exchanges might be wild and loose, which suits the underdog, but if Lewis misses with one of his lusty swings, he is likely to end up on his back, where Almeida can go to work.

Jailton Almeida v Derrick Lewis betting tips

There appear to be only two possible outcomes for this matchup: either Lewis lands early and scores the KO finish, or he is manhandled and submitted by the BJJ wizard opposite. The latter seems more likely, and we are tipping Almeida to continue his run towards contender status in front of a partisan home crowd.

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