Bengals @ Chiefs betting picks & odds – AFC Championship Game

The AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals is set to kick off at 2pm CST on Sunday. This showdown between perhaps the NFL’s best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and the sensational second-year star Joe Burrow is set to be one for the ages.

The current odds for the game have the Chiefs favored by seven points and -370.37 on the moneyline with Bovada. The last time these two teams played they totaled a whopping 65 points. For that reason, the over/under for the game sits at 54.5 and Vegas expects this to be another shootout.

The Chiefs have the most potent offense in the league and are a matchup nightmare for everyone including the Bengals defense, who netted three turnovers against Ryan Tannehill last week. Between Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Mecole Hardman it seems like playing the Chiefs is like picking your poison. It surely helps that Mahomes is the one facilitating the offense and Andy Reid is the one calling the plays.

The Chiefs started out slow, they were a modest 4-4 after Week 8. The offense wasn’t clicking just yet and the respected Steve Spagnuolo’s defense was getting lit up week after week. It looked like for the first time in the Mahomes era that they were beatable. As all good teams do, however, they figured it out and went rolling into the playoffs. They just missed out on the no.1 seed after playing .500 football for the first eight weeks of the season.

It was only a matter of time till the Chiefs figured it out, as they have too many explosive players to be middle of the pack. While their offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders, their defense still looks a tad shaky. The Chiefs have given up big points to good quarterbacks including Josh Allen, Joe Burrow in their last matchup, and Justin Herbert. If there is one knock on the Chiefs, it’s that defense which may be missing Tyrann Mathieu, who remains in concussion protocol into Tuesday evening.

Kelce (-155) and Hill (-150) to score touchdowns is all but a lock, but it looks like the top NFL betting sites are buying stock in Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon has been used a lot down the stretch and has become a safety blanket for Mahomes when he gets in trouble. McKinnon to score a touchdown is at -110 as opposed to Edwards-Helaire at +140.

On the other side of things, the Bengals look to be the underdog story of the playoffs as they went from 4-11-1 to the AFC Championship Game in a year’s time. Burrow has been unreal and looks to be unfazed by the biggest stage the NFL has to offer. The Burrow-Chase connection has been lethal this postseason as Ja’Marr Chase became the first rookie to have 100+ receiving yards in his first two playoff games. Chase’s over/under for receiving yards is 82.5 against a Chiefs side that he torched the last time he played them. Chase exploded for 266 receiving yards, a rookie record, and three touchdowns in the Week 17 matchup between these two teams. This effort from the rookie earned him AFC offensive player of the week, and he should definitely go over 82.5 yards this game.

The Chiefs tend to struggle to pressure the quarterback, but when these two teams met a couple of weeks ago they managed to bring Burrow down four times. Everything with the Bengals comes back to the guys tasked with protecting Burrow, and we are not how well they are going to be able to. The Chiefs have been here before and that experience matters.

Burrow’s over/under for passing yards is sitting at 287.5, but that will be dependent on how quick he can get rid of the ball. Burrow also exploded against the Chiefs in Week 17, a game where he passed for 446 yards and completed 76.9% of his passes. Don’t expect an exact repeat performance from Burrow or Chase, but they have shown they can play against this same Chiefs defense.

Bengals vs Chiefs predictions & best bets

It should be noted that both the Bengals and the Chiefs are coming off emotional wins, which tends to happen this time of year. Each game means so much more, and a walk-off touchdown or field goal makes it that much more emotional. The Chiefs -7 looks the right play, but the under is our favorite bet of the weekend. It should be a hard-fought game, but we don’t think Evan McPherson – who is being dubbed as the next Justin Tucker – can save this one. The Chiefs should be headed to their third-straight Super Bowl by Sunday night.