Bills @ Patriots NFL betting picks & best props – Thursday, Dec 1

After some great Thanksgiving games last week, the NFL returns with another fascinating Thursday Night Football contest. This week, the 6-5 New England Patriots will host the 8-3 Buffalo Bills in a game that has massive implications for the division and playoff race. Here are our betting picks for the game, with odds courtesy of Bovada.

Bills @ Patriots spread pick: New England +4.5

The Patriots may not win this game, but we are confident they can play the Bills close. As a home underdog in a divisional contest, the Pats hold all the value, as their elite defense will slow down Josh Allen and the prolific Bills offense. While that’s a tall task, the Bills have struggled in recent weeks and they don’t look like a lock for the Super Bowl like they did earlier in the season. The Bills defense has also struggled of late, giving up 20-plus points in five of six games, and the Patriots will be able to move the ball. Sure, the Bills are great, but this New England squad is getting hot at the right time and should play within the number for the duration of this battle.

Rhamondre Stevenson total receiving yards: Over 30.5

This has been one of our favorite NFL betting plays across the entire board in recent weeks. Rhamondre Stevenson has emerged as an elite running back for the Patriots, and recently it’s been because of his passing-game prowess. Since taking over that role full-time, he has cleared 50 receiving yards in four of five games, and in two of those games he’s been over 70 yards. This line is way too low, and considering the Pats should pass a lot in this game to keep up with the Bills’ scoring, this is our favorite bet for the Thursday game.

Gabe Davis total receiving yards: Over 50.5

Gabe Davis is the second-best wide receiver on the Bills and he is set up for a big game. The Patriots are notorious for limiting the best offensive weapon on the opposing team, and this week that’ll be Stefon Diggs. This should give Davis more room to operate, and while he is inconsistent, the UCF alumnus has cleared this number in five games this season. Expect him to be heavily involved while the Pats’ lockdown corner, Jack Jones, focuses on Diggs.

Bills touchdown scorer pick: Josh Allen

Ever since Josh Allen hurt his elbow, he has been running the ball more. In the past four weeks, the Buffalo quarterback has three rushing touchdowns, and he now has five on the season. In this game against the Patriots’ elite pass rush, Allen will have to break the pocket more often than normal and use his legs to pick up yardage. As a result, there is more value on his touchdown odds as he is likely to tuck it and run around the goal line. Take Allen to score in a game that should feature a lot of points.

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