Can Nikola Jokic win the NBA MVP three years in a row?

The NBA MVP is the most prestigious individual award in basketball. One player each season joins the hierarchy of NBA legends and an MVP award all but guarantees a spot in the Basketball Hall of Fame. Nikola Jokic, of the Denver Nuggets, has taken home the last two awards and will be gunning for three in a row. Prior to him, it was Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo who won two consecutive MVP awards.

MVP voters are an interesting bunch. At this point, a lot of guys in media and podcasting have votes and we have more insight into the voting process than ever before. The main consensus is that the MVP has to go to a player on a good team. Essentially, in order to be valuable, you must be helping a good team win.

Also, the voters are often prone to narratives. If one player has a better story than another player, that player will be more likely to garner votes.

The favorite is Luka Doncic, and that makes sense. If all things were equal, he would probably be our pick to win it. However, his odds are at +500 with Bovada and we cannot justify taking that price. Luka is the entire Mavericks offense and his team will go as far as he takes them. He is a generational talent and will be entering his fourth season, which is a year where he can take a leap in his performance. That being said, this price is too low and not worth it right now.

The next two favorites are the guys who finished second and third in the 2022 NBA MVP voting – Joel Embiid and Antetokounmpo. They are both legitimate stars who are instrumental to their team’s success. The gripe with both of these guys over the past couple of seasons is that they tend to take a lot of rest days and don’t play as often as other players. While they are two of the best players in the world, they will likely take even more rest days next year and their prices don’t justify a wager at this point.

Next up is Kevin Durant, and his odds of +1000 just don’t make sense. He is still an unbelievable player, but he has had some injury trouble in past couple of seasons and projects to be playing on a bad team next year. He will be 34 entering next season and it’s just too risky to bet on him right now. He is a great talent, but his MVP days may be behind him.

Next in the market is the back-to-back MVP himself, Nikola Jokic. His odds of +1200 are surprisingly high, but it makes sense. While he is a phenomenal player, it’s so hard to win back to back MVPs, let alone three in a row. The last player to do it was Larry Bird from 1984-1986 and it’s unlikely to happen again. Jokic would have to drastically improve on his 2022 MVP season, and if that happens, it would be the best season in NBA history. We are not counting on that to happen, so Jokic is not worth betting on right now.

Steph Curry is at +1300, and while he is a great player, the Warriors have been preserving him for playoff runs in recent years. Much like Durant, he will be 34 next season and is a little too injury prone to make him worth betting on. Stay away at this point in the offseason.

The next two players both present good value. Jayson Tatum is at +1500 and Ja Morant is at +1600. Each of these players should be the leading man on a good team, and they are both young enough to show great improvement on their previous season. Tatum is 24 and Morant is 22, and neither has evolved into the best basketball player they can be. Expect both of these players to have monster seasons and be in the MVP conversation throughout the year. These prices may only get lower, so now is actually a good time to buy in on Tatum and Morant.

The last pick we have for this batch of NBA futures is Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Edwards endeared himself to NBA fans throughout this past season and is already beloved by the NBA media. He will be entering his third season next year at 21 years old and has shown he has MVP-level talent. Edwards finished last season very strong, so if he can build off that, his price of +6500 will be a complete steal. It’s definitely a longshot, but Edwards has the talent and the narrative to build a great MVP case.

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