Djokovic vs. Federer picks – 2015 Wimbledon finals

When: Sunday, July 12th 2015 at 2:00pm (Wimbledon) – 9:00am ET

Where: Centre Court at All England Club in London

TV: BBC1 (Local) & ESPN3 (USA)

ARE the stars aligning for Roger Federer at Wimbledon 2015, or will Novak Djokovic steal the spotlight?

Everyone, including Federer, understands that his chances at winning a grand slam are dwindling every year.

This may prove to be the last grand slam final Federer plays in and he’s going to want the title badly. He has been the best player in the tournament up to this point, but everything will be forgotten if he doesn’t win the final.

Where to bet on the 2015 Wimbledon final

Americans can bet on Djokovic vs. Federer at Bovada.lv, while Canadians will be redirected to Bodog.eu – the two brands are separate entities, but have the same software/odds. There are already a lot of great props up for the finals.

Both sportsbooks recently revamped the bonus program and now offer cash bonuses rather than free plays.

Get up to a $250 cash bonus at Bovada (USA) & up to a $100 cash bonus at Bodog (Canada).

Here are the match odds:

Match Odds: Djokovic (-130) vs. Federer (+110)

Total Games: Over 43.5 (-120) vs. Under 43.5 (-110)

Games Won: Djokovic -1.5 (+135) vs. Federer +1.5 (-175)

Total Sets: Over 3.5 (-250) vs. Under 3.5 (+185)

Djokovic vs. Federer betting preview – Wimbledon 2015

Let’s first take a look at how these men earned a spot in the 2015 Wimbledon finals.

Novak Djokovic results (2015 Wimbledon)

First Round: Philipp Kohlschreiber (6-4, 6-4 & 6-4)
Second Round: Jarkko Nieminen (6-4, 6-2 & 6-3)
Third Round: Bernard Tomic (6-3, 6-3 & 6-3)
Fourth Round: Kevin Anderson (6-7, 6-7, 6-1, 6-4 & 7-5)
Quarterfinals: Marin Cilic (6-4, 6-4 & 6-4)
Semifinals: Richard Gasquet (7-6, 6-4 & 6-4)

Roger Federer results (2015 Wimbledon)

First Round: Damir Dzumhur (6-1, 6-3 & 6-3)
Second Round: Sam Querrey (6-4, 6-2 & 6-2)
Third Round: Sam Groth (6-4, 6-4, 6-7 & 6-2)
Fourth Round: Robert Bautista Agut (6-2, 6-2 & 6-3)
Quarterfinals: Gilles Simon (6-3, 7-5 & 6-2)
Semifinals: Andy Murray (7-5, 7-5 & 6-4)

There’s no denying Federer has had not only the tougher path, but he has played better too.

Both of these players have won every match in straight sets at this year’s Wimbledon, except for one, which is an incredible feat.

I told you in our initial Wimbledon preview that the cream rises to the top at Wimbledon on the men’s draw.

Let’s take a look at some statistics from Wimbledon this year for both of these players.

Aces: Djokovic (64) vs. Federer (67)
Unforced Errors: Djokovic (105) vs. Federer (75)
Winners: Djokovic (228) vs. Federer (244)
First Serve %: Djokovic 71.04% (417/587) vs. Federer 67.30% (317/471)
First Serve Points Won: Djokovic 77.22% (322/417) vs. Federer 84.86% (269/317)
Second Serve Points Won: Djokovic 64.71% (110/170) vs. Federer 65.58% (101/154)
Break Points Won: Djokovic 41.67% (25/60) vs. Federer 45.90% (28/61)
Return Points Won: Djokovic 39.31% (250/636) vs. Federer 40.22% (222/552)

The numbers never lie – it’s clear Federer has been the better player at Wimbledon. He has played tougher opponents too, which make these stats even more interesting. Djokovic has been playing fine, but he has been sloppy.

He has over one-hundred unforced errors already – the only statistic where he holds an edge against Federer is in first serve percentage. However, Federer has done way better at converting his first serves into points.

Let’s now analyze the head-to-head series between Djokovic and Federer.

Federer holds a small lead in the H2H series (20-19), but Djokovic has won the last two meetings. These two have played three times in 2015 – Djokovic won at Indian Wells and Rome Masters – while Federer won at Dubai.

These two met in the Wimbledon finals last year and Djokovic won in five sets, which included two tiebreakers. Federer can never be ruled out on grass and he has really looked at his best the last couple weeks in London.

The only other time these two played each other on grass was in the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals – a match Federer won in four sets. These two have a storied history and the rivalry will be in full force this weekend.

Djokovic vs. Federer predictions

Best Bet: Roger Federer ML (+110) at Bovada.lv

Djokovic is still receiving a lot of heat for “choking” in the French Open finals. I expect Djokovic to play strong, but I’ve been too impressed with Federer to pass him up. He knocked out my outright pick (Murray) and now I’m rolling with him.

Federer will win the serving battle and he has to continue dominating on his first serve. He struggled with his second serve in last year’s Wimbledon final, but if his first serve is on point, that won’t be a major problem.

I’m also betting on “No” in the will there be a tiebreaker market at +325 odds. I can’t believe this line. Sure, these two played two tiebreakers in last year’s final, but in nine sets since then, there has only been one tiebreaker played.

At these odds I’m willing to bet a 1/2 unit on no tiebreaker in this match.

You can make a case for Djokovic and Federer winning the finals. Both are the best in the world, but Federer looks to be in better form, he’s a huge threat still on the grass and Djokovic is fresh off a finals performance in Paris.

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