Hernandez v Pereira preview & betting picks | UFC Fight Night

Anthony Hernandez takes on Michel Pereira in the UFC Fight Night main event in Las Vegas this Saturday as the pair jostle for position in the middleweight rankings. Both fighters bring strong form into this contest, with leading UFC bookmakers giving Hernandez only a slight edge. Read on for our full fight preview and betting predictions.

Hernandez v Pereira fight analysis

Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira

Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) enters this bout on a five-fight win streak that includes recent victories over Roman Kopylov, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Marc-Andre Barriault. The 30-year-old is not a renowned knockout artist, with just two KO wins to his name, but he boasts a slick ground game that has yielded eight submissions. He also has a perfect 2-0 record with the judges.

Hernandez has had a poor run with injuries since 2021, pulling out of multiple fights due to a range of complaints. This can prove a blessing in the long term, with combatants suffering less damage and prolonging their careers. Despite being one year younger than his opponent, the American has fought in 19 fewer professional bouts and should be the fresher and more resilient athlete.

Michel Pereira (31-11-0) is riding an eight-fight win streak that includes recent results against Ihor Potieria, Michał Oleksiejczuk, and Andre Petrovski. The 31-year-old is a well-rounded MMA competitor with 11 wins via knockout, nine via submission, and 11 via decision. The Brazilian’s only major weakness has been with the judges, with eight of his professional losses coming on points. He might otherwise have been a middleweight champion.

Due to a willingness to compete, Pereira has appeared 44 times since 2013 without any lengthy breaks. His chin remains resolute; he has only been knocked out once throughout his career, way back in 2018. Pereira has flirted with the 170-pound division but looks much more comfortable at 185 pounds, where a strenuous weight cut is not required.

Hernandez v Pereira betting strategy

Both of these fighters are elite BJJ grapplers, so the bout might come down to volume and consistency across all disciplines. In that count, Hernandez lacks Pereira’s finishing power but might be the more active striker. The favourite brings a more technical approach to the standup game, while the underdog can produce wild and unpredictable moves in bursts.

If the fight progresses beyond the opening two rounds, the favourite’s superior cardio might prove the difference. Should Pereira begin to wane, Hernandez might be able to land a submission in the third or fourth round to continue his win streak.

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