MotoGP Italian GP post qualifying race tips & best bets

Marc Márquez secured pole position at Mugello for the 2025 Brembo Grand Prix of Italy with a blistering 1:44.169 lap, edging out Francesco Bagnaia by just 0.059s.

The Ducati Lenovo teammates will lock out the front row for Sunday’s race, setting up a mouth-watering clash in front of a packed Italian crowd. Álex Márquez will launch from P3, giving Ducati fans hope of a dream podium sweep on home soil.

Fabio Quartararo put in his best qualifying of the season to take P4 for Yamaha, while Maverick Viñales and Franco Morbidelli complete a highly competitive second row.

Further back, Pedro Acosta starts eighth after a solid, if not spectacular, Q2 performance, while Joan Mir faces a tough task from P18 on the grid.

With Ducati looking dominant, the top sportsbooks have tightened the markets — but there’s still value for those willing to bet against the front-row favourites or bank on late-race drama.

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  Your Winz

Updated MotoGP Italian GP – Race winner odds (post-qualifying)

• Marc Márquez (ESP-Ducati) – -333.33
• Álex Márquez (ESP-Ducati) – +425
• Francesco Bagnaia (ITA-Ducati) – +425
• Maverick Viñales (ESP-KTM) – +1200
• Fabio Di Giannantonio (ITA-Ducati) – +3300
• Pedro Acosta (ESP-KTM) – +3300
• Fabio Quartararo (FRA-Yamaha) – +4000
• Franco Morbidelli (ITA-Ducati) – +4000
• Marco Bezzecchi (ITA-Aprilia) – +4000
• Fermin Aldeguer (ESP-Ducati) – +10000
• Raúl Fernández (ESP-Aprilia) – +10000
• Brad Binder (RSA-KTM) – +25000
• Enea Bastianini (ITA-KTM) – +25000
• Ai Ogura (JPN-Aprilia) – +40000
• Álex Rins (ESP-Yamaha) – +40000
• Joan Mir (ESP-Honda) – +40000
• Johann Zarco (FRA-Honda) – +40000
• Jack Miller (AUS-Yamaha) – +55000
• Miguel Oliveira (POR-Yamaha) – +60000
• Any rider not listed – +70000
• Lorenzo Savadori (ITA-Aprilia) – +100000
• Somkiat Chantra (THA-Honda) – +100000

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Race winner betting tips – Italian GP

Francesco Bagnaia to win
Bagnaia starts alongside Marc Márquez on the front row and knows Mugello like no one else. With home support and the Ducati’s Mugello pedigree, +425 odds offer fair value if Pecco can snatch the holeshot or apply pressure early.

Álex Márquez to win
Álex has the pace and grid position to make this interesting. At +425, you’re getting strong value on a rider who’s shown he can mix it at the front, and if the brothers go head-to-head, Álex might just get the better of it.

Maverick Viñales to win
Viñales heads up row two and have looked sharp all weekend on the KTM. At +1200, he’s the best outsider pick for those chasing a bigger payout — especially if the Ducatis trip over each other.

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