MotoGP Italian Grand Prix 2025 tips, odds & predictions

MotoGP returns to the rolling hills of Tuscany this weekend for the 2025 Brembo Grand Prix of Italy, with lights out set for 2pm CEST on Sunday, June 22. As one of the most anticipated rounds of the season, Mugello is primed for another Ducati-dominated showdown — but there’s no shortage of challengers aiming to spoil the party.

The 5.2km Mugello circuit is known for its 1.1km front straight, rapid elevation changes, and a sweeping rhythm that rewards precision and bravery.

The high-speed Esses, the double-apex Arrabbiata corners, and the flowing Casanova-Savelli combination create one of the most technical laps of the year.

Championship leader Marc Márquez heads into the weekend as the firm favourite, having built an almost unassailable lead in the standings and stands at -3333.33 with top sportsbooks.

The Spanish superstar has been in dominant form and will look to tighten his grip on the title. Meanwhile, Francesco Bagnaia will be riding with the weight of expectation as he looks to deliver a statement performance for Ducati in front of the passionate Italian tifosi at Mugello. Expect fireworks as these two titans clash in a pivotal race of the season.

• 

  Your Winz

2025 MotoGP Italian Grand Prix race winner odds

• Marc Márquez – -227.27
• Francesco Bagnaia – +275
• Álex Márquez – +500
• Franco Morbidelli – +2500
• Fabio Quartararo – +2800
• Fabio Di Giannantonio – +3300
• Marco Bezzecchi – +3300
• Pedro Acosta – +4000
• Fermín Aldeguer – +4000
• Brad Binder – +6000
• Johann Zarco – +6000
• Maverick Viñales – +6600
• Joan Mir – +8000
• Ai Ogura – +12500
• Jack Miller – +12500
• Enea Bastianini – +15000
• Álex Rins – +15000
• Raúl Fernández – +40000
• Miguel Oliveira – +40000
• Aleix Espargaró – +50000
• Augusto Fernández – +75000
• Somkiat Chantra – +75000
• Michele Pirro – +150000
• Lorenzo Savadori – +200000
• Pol Espargaró – +200000

• 

  World's Largest!

Race winner betting tips – Italian GP at Mugello

Francesco Bagnaia to win
Bagnaia always turns it on at Mugello. He thrives on high-speed corners and knows every bump of this track. With Ducati desperate for a home win, Pecco looks ready to deliver in front of the Italian fans — and the +275 odds offer plenty of value compared to Márquez’s short quote.

Fabio Di Giannantonio to win
‘Diggia’ has been building momentum across the European rounds and Mugello is a circuit he knows inside-out. At +3300, this is a serious value play for a rider who’s shown he can mix it with the front group when conditions line up.

Pedro Acosta to win
The long straight might not suit KTM as much, but his corner entry speed and fearlessness make him a live threat. If he qualifies well, he’s worth a dart at +4000 in what could be his first true giant-killing ride.