New Zealand v South Africa Rugby Championship betting picks

The All Blacks and Springboks meet again in Round 4 of the 2025 Rugby Championship in Wellington on Saturday, September 13.

New Zealand extended their incredible Eden Park record last weekend with a 24-17 win, but Sky Stadium hasn’t always been as friendly. South Africa drew 16-16 here in 2019 and won 36-34 in 2018, so the world champions know they can deliver in the Wellington.

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All Blacks coach Scott Robertson has made minimal changes for the rematch but has handed sevens speedster Leroy Carter his first Test start on the left wing. Noah Hotham returns at scrum-half, Damian McKenzie starts at fullback and Beauden Barrett continues at fly-half.

Rassie Erasmus has gone bold with seven changes to South Africa’s starting side after the Eden Park loss. Ethan Hooker debuts on the wing, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu runs the show at fly-half, and Jasper Wiese is back at No.8 with Siya Kolisi shifting to blindside flanker. Lood de Jager partners Ruan Nortje in a reshaped second row.

With the Freedom Cup also on the line and both sides still chasing the Rugby Championship crown, this sets up as another high-intensity battle, with rugby union betting sites placing the All Blacks as -200 favorites.

New Zealand v South Africa lineups

New Zealand starting XV

15 Damian McKenzie
14 Will Jordan
13 Billy Proctor
12 Jordie Barrett
11 Leroy Carter
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Noah Hotham
8 Wallace Sititi
7 Ardie Savea
6 Simon Parker
5 Tupou Vaa’i
4 Scott Barrett (c)
3 Tyrel Lomax
2 Samisoni Taukei’aho
1 Ethan de Groot

Bench: Brodie McAlister, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Du’Plessis Kirifi, Finlay Christie, Quinn Tupaea, Ruben Love

South Africa starting XV

15 Aphelele Fassi
14 Cheslin Kolbe
13 Canan Moodie
12 Damian Willemse
11 Ethan Hooker
10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
9 Cobus Reinach
8 Jasper Wiese
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Siya Kolisi (c)
5 Ruan Nortje
4 Lood de Jager
3 Thomas du Toit
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Ox Nche

Bench: Marnus van der Merwe, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok, Andre Esterhuizen

All Blacks v Springboks betting predictions

New Zealand -5.5 handicap

The All Blacks have continuity across their spine, while South Africa have rolled the dice with a reshuffled backline. That stability should allow New Zealand to control territory and tempo early, forcing the Springboks to chase the game. If they replicate the intensity of their Eden Park start, the All Blacks can cover the -5.5 handicap at -111.11 with BetOnline.

Leroy Carter anytime tryscorer

Carter comes in for his first Test start because of his blistering pace and finishing ability. The rookie winger will get plenty of ball with Barrett and McKenzie looking to attack space wide against a new-look Bok defense. At +110 with BetOnline, Carter is a genuine value play to mark his debut with a try.

Over 48.5 total points

Both sides are expected to play with more width and tempo, with South Africa’s selection hinting at an attacking mindset. Add in New Zealand’s explosive backline and the open conditions forecast for Wellington, and we could see a higher-scoring game than last week’s Eden Park clash. The over 48.5 points at -111.11 with the best sports betting sites shapes as a strong bet for fans of attacking rugby.